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page_eco's profile
Lionel Page
Lionel Page
Lionel Page
@page_eco

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Lionel Page

@page_eco

Economist, Assoc Editor Theory and Decision. Tweet on behavioural economics, science and society.

Sydney
sites.google.com/site/liopage/h…
Joined January 2017

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    Lionel Page‏ @page_eco Jan 6

    How people come up with “random” numbers: A: “Pick a random number from 1-10” B: 🤔°(1 and 10 are too obvious. 5 stands out in the middle. Half way between 5 and 10 is hidden in the mix. It won’t be the same number other picked 😁.) “Seven” https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/acow6y/asking_over_8500_students_to_pick_a_random_number/ …pic.twitter.com/aufTJjQkk4

    12:28 AM - 6 Jan 2019
    • 1,341 Retweets
    • 2,943 Likes
    • StePfa Satchit S Cindy Wang Mellow Mugga nebelgrau Taki Yu~ Alexey Romanov Kshitij Kunwar
    128 replies 1,341 retweets 2,943 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. ROTOPE~1‏ @RotoPenguin Jan 6
        Replying to @page_eco

        Obligpic.twitter.com/ahfMF1Yspk

        1 reply 15 retweets 172 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. oliver beige‏ @oliverbeige Jan 6
        Replying to @page_eco @DinaPomeranz

        In every Twitter snail race I've participated in so far snail #3 won by a landslide. _🐌3⃣______🐌2⃣___🐌4⃣__🐌1⃣___ https://twitter.com/search?q=snail%20race … (It was my pick too.)

        1 reply 3 retweets 10 likes
      3. Ricardo Stange‏ @stange_ricardo Jan 6
        Replying to @oliverbeige @page_eco @DinaPomeranz

        There exists a nash equilibrium where everyone expects the #3 to win so it gets all the votes. Why #3 though?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. oliver beige‏ @oliverbeige Jan 6
        Replying to @stange_ricardo @page_eco @DinaPomeranz

        Same logic as @page_eco's really, except inverted. 1 and 4 are "too obvious, nobody's gonna pick them". Between 2 and 3, "most people are right-handed and drive on the right, so the right choice feels more 'safe'".

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      5. oliver beige‏ @oliverbeige Jan 6
        Replying to @oliverbeige @stange_ricardo and

        Notably, you have to mentally convert the vertical ordering of Twitter surveys to the horizontal ordering we use to envision numbers (the "Zahlenstrahl") to get there...

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. oliver beige‏ @oliverbeige Jan 6
        Replying to @oliverbeige @stange_ricardo and

        Oddly enough, there's a common explanation for why both "pick the most likely choice" and "pick the least likely choice" come up with the same answer. It's "pick the cattle in the herd that's most likely to survive."

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Robert Lepenies‏ @RobertLepenies Jan 6
        Replying to @page_eco

        Love the people who said “0”.

        1 reply 1 retweet 43 likes
      3. James Lethbridge‏ @jwlethbridge Jan 7
        Replying to @RobertLepenies

        pic.twitter.com/Eiim6FzlwU

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. dan‏ @d4n_tweets Jan 7
        Replying to @page_eco

        @hela_luc thought the bit of patter about "everyone picks 7" was just that, but !!

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. cant wait for xmas 2019‏ @hela_luc Jan 7
        Replying to @d4n_tweets @page_eco

        Not news I’m not impressed

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. dan‏ @d4n_tweets Jan 7
        Replying to @hela_luc @page_eco

        I'm trying

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. gorzilla‏ @gor_zilla Jan 7
        Replying to @d4n_tweets @hela_luc @page_eco

        Pick a number between 1 and 10 Small brain: 7 Galaxy brain: 0

        0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. 𝕯𝖊𝖗 𝖌𝖗𝖎𝖒𝖒𝖊 𝕾𝖈𝖍𝖓𝖎𝖙𝖙𝖊𝖗‏ @GrimmeSchnitte Jan 6
        Replying to @page_eco @Icewalker1974

        Ok, that's all fine and clear, but 0? Who answers with 0 when 1 to 10 ist the given range? 🤔

        1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      3. jonce upon a time‏ @whyevernotso Jan 6
        Replying to @GrimmeSchnitte

        Contrarians

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. 𝕯𝖊𝖗 𝖌𝖗𝖎𝖒𝖒𝖊 𝕾𝖈𝖍𝖓𝖎𝖙𝖙𝖊𝖗‏ @GrimmeSchnitte Jan 6
        Replying to @whyevernotso

        🤔 yes, that's possible. Or, perhaps, nihilists...

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Fake “Unicode.”  ↙️‏ @FakeUnicode Jan 7
        Replying to @GrimmeSchnitte @whyevernotso

        But not Romans.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. FreisinnigeZeitung‏ @FreisinnigeZtg Jan 6
        Replying to @page_eco

        Maybe part of it is that people understand something other than uniformly distributed when they hear the word "random." I would think it is something like "particularly hard to figure out in advance" and that leads to a search for "least obviously generated by a simple rule."

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. FreisinnigeZeitung‏ @FreisinnigeZtg Jan 6
        Replying to @FreisinnigeZtg @page_eco

        Those who scoff at the results are perhaps not aware that "random" is not the same as uniformly distributed. People here sampled perfectly from the empirical distribution. ;-)

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Leo Luxemburg‏ @iclibirmars Jan 7
        Replying to @FreisinnigeZtg @page_eco

        What is a "random number" anyway? I guess they meant "pick a number randomly" but for me it's a fixed quantity and it's equal to 7 :)

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. FreisinnigeZeitung‏ @FreisinnigeZtg Jan 7
        Replying to @iclibirmars @page_eco

        From a distribution that has 100% probability at 7 and 0% elsewhere.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation

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