Lionel Page

@page_eco

Economist . Author of forthcoming 'Optimally Irrational'. Tweet on behavioural economics, science and society.

Sydney
Joined January 2017

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  1. Pinned Tweet
    27 Jul 2019

    This is a black and white photograph. Only the lines have colour. What you “see” is what your 🧠 predicts the reality to be, given the imperfect information it gets.

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  2. 1 hour ago

    This great excerpt from The Gulag Archipelago by Solzhenitsyn gives insight into the game theory of lavishing praise in dictatorships: “Don’t ever be the first to stop applauding!”

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  3. 11 hours ago

    Reminder that sports commentaries are narratives largely built on randomness.

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  4. 24 hours ago

    This cute video shows how tail wagging is a way to communicate. 🐶 only wags tail when making eye contact.

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  5. Feb 1

    A great way to realise the sheer quantity of information our 🧠 seamlessly processes when we do a “simple” task like driving a car. This is what the Tesla autopilot sees using a neural network which took 70,000 GPU hours to train. ht

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  6. Feb 1

    NFL games’ broadcasts are 1h30 longer than football (soccer) games and they have three times less actual playing time: 18min vs 58min.

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  7. Retweeted
    Jan 31
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  8. Retweeted
    Jan 31

    Incredible de facto social science experiment. Collective honking resets red light countdown to more time. Will it reduce honking? I think so

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  9. Jan 31

    Brilliant idea to adjust your perception about how you compare to a top athlete like Ronaldo.

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  10. Jan 30

    So if you find yourself on a court, or watching tennis, remember: the most critical points are most likely 30-30 and deuce. It’s an insight from game theory which goes beyond the case of tennis and tells us something about the dynamics of competitions. (End)

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  11. Jan 30

    All these quotes are from our paper with where we find that male professional tennis players seem to follow the predictions of the model. After losing a point on a symmetric scoreline, the player behind is less likely to win the next point.

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  12. Jan 30

    What do professional players do? Brad Gilbert, one of the most successful tennis coaches, stresses in his book “Winning Ugly” that the most important points are not game points but 30-30/deuce.

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  13. Jan 30

    As a consequence, symmetric scorelines are key. And the most important situations are 30-30/deuce where you can either get a game point or have to defend one. It is for the 30-30/deuce points that players will expend the most effort in the equilibrium of the game.

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  14. Jan 30

    Suppose also that players prefer to win quickly (instead of playing 10 advantage<->deuce situations). Then, there is a unique equilibrium in this game, and players do not put the same effort on every point. In particular they put less effort when they are behind!

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  15. Jan 30

    Now suppose we consider a simplified version of a tennis match. Players just decide at the start of each point how much effort they put for this point. The player putting the most effort wins the point. Effort is costly so players don’t want to put more effort than needed.

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  16. Jan 30

    Here is a stylised tennis game. You start at 0-0 and move in the tree as you win/lose points. To win, you need to win 4 points with at least 2 point difference. Note that 30-30 and deuce are strategically equivalent (2-2).

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  17. Jan 30

    But there are good reasons for players not to do that. In a game of tennis, not all points are worth the same. Consider a player returning serve. Winning at 30-40 gives him a break. Winning at 40-0 will most likely make no difference. So the payoffs of effort vary with the score.

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  18. Jan 30

    It is common to hear that players should play each point 100%. See for instance what Djokovic said in 2013:

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  19. Jan 30

    Results of the poll! Most people think game points are the most important points to work for. I’ll argue that, instead, 30-30/deuce is most likely the right answer! Here is a thread for tennis lovers on insights from game theory.

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  20. Jan 29

    How contagious is the coronavirus? (World Health Organisation data). by

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  21. Jan 29

    Tennis strategy: Should you play each point 100% or put more effort into some points to win them?

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