If nothing has changed in the conditions that led to the necessity for social distancing, then there is no reason to believe that social distancing can end without disaster. The main rationale people seem to have for "opening up" is frustration, not that progress has been made.
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In many places, distancing began when active infection rates were far lower than they are now, and absolute death rates were far lower than they are now. There's no reason to expect opening won't result in exponential spread again.
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Of course, in the interim months, a great deal of progress could have been made at making testing and tracing ubiquitous etc., but that hasn't happened. The only really tangible progress I've seen is the appearance of lots of makeshift masks.
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And, to be fair, masks alone, if of at least modest quality and if worn nearly universally, might bring R0 way down. But so far, most of the opportunity for improving containment seems to have been used poorly.
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The one good part is that treatment methods for really bad cases seem to be improving a bit. HFNC+PEEP, proning, dealing with the weird side effects like clotting, etc. But I don't see how the general conditions on the ground have changed enough to "open up".
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What could still be done that could enable opening even without vaccines being available yet? If we could run 100-200m RTPCR spit tests a week for a modest cost per test, and everyone was being tested twice a month, essentially everyone infected could be rapidly detected.
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(This is probably feasible. But I don't see it happening because no one is trying to make it happen, and it's not going to happen by accident. So I think we're going to see distancing end, have the same thing happen again, and not enough will have been learned.)
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Replying to @perrymetzger
I feel like I read these exact tweets from you last week.
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Not looking forward to this needing to be said next week. Looking forward to you saying it though.
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