Do you have a guess at the false positive rate? If you successfully isolated every contact of someone with a scratchy throat or cough, what percent of people would be left?
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Replying to @HowieLempel
I don’t have a good guess. In normal times, “The percentage of the adult population that reports having been "sick with a cold" on any given day throughout the year ranges from a little more than 2% to nearly 11%.” But that should have plummeted.https://news.gallup.com/poll/118045/flu-affects-americans-given-day.aspx …
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Replying to @diviacaroline
Fwiw, I very regularly have a slightly scratchy throat or a bit of a cough on days I would not say I was sick with a cold. I'd guess this is common due to allergies and similar issues but feel very uncertain.
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Replying to @HowieLempel
Yeah, my family had 3 colds so far this calendar year and locked down early partly bc the kids were sick. Zero colds since we locked down.
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Replying to @diviacaroline @HowieLempel
If I had to isolate for two weeks every time I woke up with a sore throat, it would be lockdown with extra steps.
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Replying to @acesounderglass @HowieLempel
Do you have any idea what causes your sore throats?
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Replying to @diviacaroline @HowieLempel
Post nasal drip from allergies. Having the window open seems to make it worse, which is a shame.
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Replying to @acesounderglass @HowieLempel
Yeah I do think we would need to rule out people with allergies.
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Replying to @diviacaroline @HowieLempel
The more I think about it, the more I think "everyone in lockdown at the same time" is easier than "widespread but individually determined". There's very little temptation to leave the house right now, because I'm not missing anything and I'm not planning anything.
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If other people were out doing fun things, or if I'd planned on doing something and then found out I couldn't, that make isolation much harder.
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This is what I expect to happen in the summer
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