It's not like the surface-level numbers (e.g. the topline popularity of a certain political position) are never wrong. Lots of times they don't tell the whole story. But be wary of constantly believing that the "real" numbers are closer to what you'd like to see, personally.
I wouldn't be too surprised if believing the "real" numbers are further from what you'd like to see turned out to be a very useful heuristic (for the sorts of people reading this).