Numbers, computations, experiments: great, but without conceptual clarity they're all meaningless.
"Observations of loss aversion are not reproducible" -- that's certainly true if the concept of loss aversion, its definition, is unclear.
@realDavidGal @R_Thaler @nntaleb @ritholtz
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The point is that nudgeboy Thaler and other entertainers are translating something static (choice betwen 2 lotteries in state-space) into something dynamic (local policy in sequential betting). Static properties have no meaning in the real world.
Spot-on. Measure theory (e.g. probability and expected-utility theory) has nothing to do with time. But people live through time. Key information is missing from the setup. That causes conceptual confusion and irreproducibility. Clean up the foundation, and everything simplifies.
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Interesting point abt “measure theory”: you need measure transformation w/invariance...
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but if you add a Bayesian update process then you correctly track time, as in Kalman filter, no?
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Ima hafta to study some more, cause I do not follow you guys here. Any links appreciated
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Absolutely agree.
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Multiple dynamics are involved and time dependent, context and time cannot be ignored
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