" empirical social scientists with lots of pubs in prestigious journals are either very lucky, or they are p-hacking.” https://grasshoppermouse.github.io/2017/12/05/academic-success-is-either-a-crapshoot-or-a-scam/ …
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Excellent work is done by both those who are lucky (in the way I described) and those who are not. But the work of the lucky ones gets into Nature/Science etc., while the equivalently good work of the unlucky ones doesn't.
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To say it is "lucky" without qualifying it in the way I have, is misleading as any coin can come up heads... but once you missed the chance to get into the right circles and be "in" you have no chance of getting into a high prestige journal.
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Not always
@o_guest but I do agree with your analysis of what luck means and otherwise. If you are one of the 'guys' (on purpose) in the right circles your chances are much higher.
End of conversation
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