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@nukestrat

Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Write Nuclear Notebook and SIPRI world nuclear forces overview. Opinions are my own.

Washington, D.C.
fas.org/issues/nuclear…
Liittynyt helmikuu 2009
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  1. Kiinnitetty twiitti
    2. marrask.

    Silo lids and underground facilities. and I use satellite images from and to look closer at China’s suspected missile silos. CNN ran a story about it this morning:

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  2. 3 tuntia sitten

    This is particularly important because a rejection of No-First-Use (or Sole-Purpose) must not be misinterpreted as a strengthening of first-use ideas.

    💯Michael Krepon: Since Biden NPR is expected to reject No-First-Use (possibly also Sole-Purpose), administration needs to reframe narrow debates over when nuclear weapons might be used into a larger strategic context that reaffirms importance of No-Use.
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  3. 3 tuntia sitten

    💯Michael Krepon: Since Biden NPR is expected to reject No-First-Use (possibly also Sole-Purpose), administration needs to reframe narrow debates over when nuclear weapons might be used into a larger strategic context that reaffirms importance of No-Use.

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  4. 8 tuntia sitten

    Meanwhile in the US Senate, as the world is battling , every Republican voted to prevent US government from requiring vaccinations for government workforce & private business. 🤪 Get ready for 2022 and 2024 elections. 😱

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  5. 11 tuntia sitten

    👀 Don’t give them any ideas! I have heard the NPT withdrawal threat as long as I’ve been in this business. Many NNWSs have always been frustrated with the NWSs, but at the end of the day they don’t want to break NPT. Not then, not now. Ironically, the TPNW is proof of that.

    Going out with a bang. Last article of 2021: "When is it legitimate to abandon the ? Withdrawal as a political tool to move nuclear disarmament forward" by Joelien Pretorius and Tom Sauer
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  6. 22 tuntia sitten

    3/… and just for context: the planned ~480 B61-12 bombs to be produced are more nuclear weapons than either China, France, Britain, Pakistan, India, North Korea, and Israel have in their entire respective nuclear stockpiles.

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  7. 22 tuntia sitten

    3/3 Also interesting to read “B61-12 will replace the B61-3, 4, and 7,” given NNSA previously said it would replace B61-10 as well (since scrapped), and allow retirement of B83-1 (delayed by Trump NPR) and age-out of B61-11.

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  8. 22 tuntia sitten

    2/3 The statement that the B61-12 “improves accuracy and reduces yield with no change in military characteristics” is strange and misleading. The improved accuracy *is* the changed military characteristic that allows use of reduced yield against targets.

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  9. 22 tuntia sitten

    A decade after approved by 2010 NPR, NNSA is ready to begin production of B61-12 guided nuclear bomb. ~480 will be produced by 2025 to arm B-2 bombers & F-15E, F-16, Tornado fighters (later B-21 & F-35A). Will arrive in Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Turkey next few years.

    Last week,  successfully completed the B61-12 First Production Unit . This is a huge milestone for stockpile modernization and demonstrates our Nation’s commitment to deterrence.
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  10. 2. jouluk.

    “Because the ‘catastrophic humanitarian consequences’ include not only the horrific direct effects but also potential impacts on climate & food supplies,…scientists…can offer expertise & insight [and] be influential voices for nuclear threat reduction.”

    See our article: Geoscientists Can Help Reduce the Threat of Nuclear Weapons - Eos
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  11. uudelleentwiittasi
    2. jouluk.

    21 more debris objects cataloged today from the Russian ASAT event - here is the updated Gabbard diagram. As usual, each object has a red dot for perigee height and blue dot for apogee height

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  12. 2. jouluk.

    NAS says US must reduce plastic: “In 2016 the U.S. generated 42 million metric tons of plastic waste, the largest mass of any other country. In addition, U.S. plastic production has consistently increased each year since the 1960s.”

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  13. 1. jouluk.

    Congratulations to on his appointment as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Threat Reduction and Arms Control . A gain for the administration but a loss for where he’s been an unparalleled resource for years.

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  14. 1. jouluk.

    Austrian ambassador : “We are smack in the middle of a nuclear arms race again. And it’s not just how it was in the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union…It’s multiple deterrence relationships - everybody’s deterring one another.”

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  15. uudelleentwiittasi
    1. jouluk.

    Sec Blinken says that at the “appropriate time” the US will share with Moscow details of what the consequences will be if they move forth to invade Ukraine. He doesn’t explicitly say if he’ll share details with FM Lavrov when they meet tomorrow or not, when asked by .

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  16. uudelleentwiittasi
    1. jouluk.

    Asked about military options, Stoltenberg reiterated that Ukraine does not get NATO’s security guarantees.

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  17. 30. marrask.

    Nearly 400 years after it became an English colony, Barbados has removed Queen Elizabeth II as its head of state and become the world's newest republic. The peaceful transition took place last night. 👏👏👏👏👏👏

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  18. 30. marrask.

    This statement by to and captures well the effect/problem of competition: it is blind to consequences/alternatives. When competition is the strategy, you cannot not do it. The attached Tweet snapshot illustrates dynamic:

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  19. 30. marrask.

    “What’s worrying me is the automaticity of the actions - of more nuclear weapons & more missile defenses without thinking if there’s a smarter way…This action-reaction cycle is in nobody’s interest. We have to talk about how we’re going to interrupt it.”

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  20. 29. marrask.

    Important report from for China nuke watchers. Building on work by and but with updates. Unfortunately, only executive summary is publicly available. Hopefully more later.

    The executive summary of my report on PLA Rocket Force order of battle is now available to the public - has some interesting info on force structure and units. Check it out!
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  21. 29. marrask.

    Another Yars (RS-24, SS-27 Mod 2) ICBM is loaded into a silo at the Kozelsk missile field in western Russia. Part of modernization from previous SS-19 ICBM.

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