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Almost certainly is, like, a 1 in 1,000 hazard ratio, right? If that's the case, there will definitely be hundreds to thousands of Delta deaths in vaccinated people in the US alone, if my math is right. And separately, there's a lot of harm that I care about other than death.

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For sure, although I, personally, would want one even after seeing e.g., animal challenge trial data. The thing I really wish is that we'd started these trials in April when we identified Delta, in which case we'd be done with all of that by now..

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Well, yes, but I expect that they would have done that under a different regulatory (and vaccine purchasing) regime, which is what I would advocate for. I don't think it's fair to pin this on the companies in this case.

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Nicholas Schiefer

@nschiefer

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@voretaq7

Uh, I think we are using words in different ways here. The regulatory framework is definitely an obstacle for the vaccine boosters (and in your day job example), at least as I mean it. At minimum, in the absence of the regulator at all, neither of those things would be held up.

11:34 PM · Aug 11, 2021Twitter Web App

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and

We could also see how regulatory choices affect decision making by companies on the margin. For example, the R&D costs for enough trial data to convince me to take a booster dose are small: probably less than $100k. At the price I'd pay for one, it's easy to make that back.

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and

On the other hand, with FDA standards the cost of enough trials to get FDA authorization is much greater. And with our vaccine purchasing regime, earning the money back is much harder, too.

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I also wouldn't prefer a world with no regulatory structure at all. But, this thought experiment means that there *is* a regulatory burden. And there is a continuum of burdens that can be developed, for different benefits.

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