Conversation

news.ycombinator.com/item?id=279616 as well as today's Ars article, "Toyota bet wrong on EVs, so now it’s lobbying to slow the transition" are clueless We're constrained on total battery production. Per unit of battery, hybrids are much more efficient than EVs in terms of reducing emissions

Replying to

"we're constrained on total battery production" = price elasticity of supply is very low or zero (even in the medium/long-term)? If so, that surprises me! What is the constraint?

Replying to

This may change, but currently, the constraints are materials used in batteries. The elasticity isn't zero, but it would have to be very high to make up for how much capacity EVs need (1.3kWh for a Prius, 42x-63x that much for a Tesla Model 3). See also,

Quote Tweet

Dan Luu

@danluu

Jul 28, 2021

Replying to @danluu and @dwragg

When looking at non-exhaust emissions, equivalent LR EVs produce more PM2.5 than ICE vehicles & less PM10 due higher weight + regen braking. Hybrids win on PM2.5 and PM10. Brake wear, tire wear, road wear, & road dust resuspension are all major factors in particulate pollution.

Replying to

Hmm. It looks like the non-EV ban comes into force in 2035, right? So we care about elasticity on a 15y horizon? Over the last 10y, it looks like battery production went up 10x[1] and price fell 10x: [1]: nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/world- [2]:

renewableenergyworld.com

Annual survey finds battery prices dropped 13% in 2020

Annual survey finds battery prices dropped 13% in 2020 Storage - Renewable Energy World

Replying to

and

We'll see what happens. Some places are legislating ICE bans as soon as 2030. It might be fine, but it seems better to legislate the problem (pollution) than the solution (EV vs. hybrid) since, per the linked tweet, EVs also pollute more than hybrids today.

Replying to

and

If we want to reduce emissions, why not increase the gas tax (or for that matter, carbon taxes in general) a lot? As it is now, I think vehicle weight is is one of the larger untaxed externalities and mandating EVs actually makes that worse, not better.

Replying to

and

I agree that would be more sensible. My vague impression is that two factors that push away from it are (1) taxing externalities is less politically popular than banning them for some reason and (2) most people only care about CO2, not particulates?

Replying to

and

(Cynical take: banning instead of taxing an externality causing more suffering to the opposing (minority) coalition that supports the thing, thus demonstrating to your base that you are Tough On Outgroup.)

Replying to

and

Oh, and an even less cynical take: "tax" is an overloaded word that refers to both revenue-raising activity and Pigouvian behaviour-shaping activity. The emotional responses to those get crossed and that makes people suspicious of Pigouvian taxes (and friends).

3:37 AM · Jul 29, 2021Twitter Web App