[3] by other experts. Does that make sense? Thoughts?
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to respond with intellectual integrity. In fact, the entire exchange seemed like a paradigm of good scholarship. Maybe?
i am pleased that they replied and corrected report. not pleased that corrected version still cites stern
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stern's # is hard to interpret bc it's a social compromise w researchers who want a way higher # for non-xrisk reasons
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stern may well have thought "0.1 is too high as estimate, but i'm already 'pushing it' relative to standard, high # s"
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like, all the subsequent debate is about "is it acceptable to set the number to basically zero?"
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and stern isn't an xrisk guy anyway so his actual estimate, /whatever it is/, would just be an educated non-expert estimate
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so in fact your other data could be used to critique stern: "xrisk experts say your non-expert # is too low"
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like, it's all a complex epistemic mess. and i'm confused why the FHI/CEA authors still want to use it in light of that
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Thanks again for your incisive insight on these issues! I'll send you a link when the aforementioned articles comes out.
End of conversation
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