@xriskology thank you for linking to my article in your @motherboard piece. but imo the stern number doesn't work here even w the caveat
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others defend higher rate not bc of higher extinction prob but bc of other ethics (eg rawlsianism)
stern got 0.1 by: "i'm basing this on extinction which is unlikely; here's a number that sounds low"
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[3] by other experts. Does that make sense? Thoughts?
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re 2, i meant the number "sounded low" relative to other discount rates which were based on things other than xrisk prob
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if it was intended as a serious estimate of xrisk prob, it's remarkable that the review has no text justifying it as such
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and afaik stern hasn't written about xrisk at all, so if he made an estimate, would it be really an "expert estimate"?
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i don't think this damages your case; other nums were higher and from more relevant sources. just, why include stern?
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another pt here is that stern implicitly assumes that /severity of climate change has no impact on prob of extinction by 2200/
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bc he uses the same 0.1 # across all compared scenarios. he also doesn't discuss human extinction even in most extreme scenarios
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so by construction the # has nothing to do w/ climate change. hard to compare to # s that eg treat it as "threat multiplier"?
End of conversation
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Also, if you don't mind, may I ask what your background is? (Just curious!)
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physics BA, applied math Ph.D student
End of conversation
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[2] but (a) it leads to a shockingly high probability per century,and (b) it's actually *lower* than other estimates offered
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[1] Second, I haven't yet looked at bruegel link, but I think what you quote above is enough for my point: 0.1% "sounds low"
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First, I really enjoyed your blog! And to be honest,I thought the response from FHI, etc. was very encouraging!
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