@mormo_music @JonasKyratzes so where is the uncertainty about the direction of our influence?
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@nostalgebraist "The climate is changing faster (magnitude) than it would w/o us." How do 'we' know this?
@mormo_music http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-phdeUnEAZE4/TuK2dxoD_EI/AAAAAAAAAGA/yym7i32b3yA/s1600/cmp3unforcedtrends.png … Blue is predictions w/ no CO2 forcing. Red is observations.
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@nostalgebraist Until Huber&Knuttis models do a 10x better job of predicting future changes than t ones t IPCC relied on, 'know' = bullshit. -
@mormo_music H&K are just running models with no forcing to look at internal variability. Not predicting forcing response. -
@nostalgebraist Ok I don't know enough about it. I do know that other peerreviewed studies disagree with t climatesensitivity assumed by H&K -
@mormo_music H&K didn't make such assumptions. Their model learned distributions of parameters like sensitivity from the data. -
@nostalgebraist Then other peer reviewed work disagrees with the climate sensitivity _calculated_ by H&K.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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@nostalgebraist So likeIsaid:If natural trend=cooling (not ruled out), humanaction that increases temp by lesseramount = slowing c.changeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@nostalgebraist We 'know' nothing of the sort. ctdThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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