Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account

@nntaleb

Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages.

Joined September 2011

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  1. My greatest fear is to have someone who just as Soros who got Popper's Open Society exactly backwards & funded an "Open Society Inst." for a Platonic bureaucrat-led -free monoculture, starts an *Incerto Institute* promoting Kantian scale-free Universalism.

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  2. Sep 12

    Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a "T" the crowd of unelected patronizing "experts" who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them "populists". Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage.

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  3. Which is the reason I hate interviews; they try to force you to reduce a book to a fortune cookie-compatible expression.

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  5. 11 hours ago

    The major finding of the paper The forecasting accuracy of the best ML method was lower than the worst of Stat ones while half the ML methods were less accurate than a random walk was contrary to the beliefs of the Neural Networks journal that rejected it using a false reason

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  6. The reason you can't trust the press is PRECISELY because they give you the illusion of truth by getting the facts right.

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  7. People in Lebanon used to rely on timber for heating/cooking (& tax payment to the Ottomans). Fossil fuel allowed the greening across places. It is bad (side effects), but one should NEVER represent a partial picture like this shoddy sensationalist @FranckGenauseau

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  8. 1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain. 2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism.

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  9. Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation.

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  10. MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline. The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation. This demoralizes environmentalists

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  11. 15 hours ago

    Le letture del Ministro ? 'Skin in the game' di , dall'undici ottobre in libreria grazie al vostro editore preferito.

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  12. Sep 18

    Great Psychology Today article on and . If it improves as a result of being faced with and solving problems, it's . Love how 's brilliant concept has invaded the lexicon.

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  13. Sep 18

    Math Problem du Jour. Courtesy: Romanian Mathematical Magazine.

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  14. Sep 18
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  15. Sep 18

    PS I am not a libertarian but a localist, i.e. libertarian for higher levels of central government.

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  16. Sep 18

    1rst stage when I read Hayek. 2nd stage when I read "Nudge" by & & saw it was pseudoscience in industrial scale & something had to be done about the class of people I later coined "IYIS" (Intellectuals Yet Idiots). 3rd stage w/the Syrian war

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  17. Sep 18

    Actually spells it out in Ch. 17 of Antifragile "The minute I was bored with a book or subject I moved to another one [...] The trick is to be bored with a specific book, rather than the act of reading. Avoidance of boredom is the only worthy mode of action."

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  18. Sep 14

    Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons.

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  19. Sep 18
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  20. Sep 18

    The division in politics can be summarized as between + Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localists (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system) + Abstract one-dimensional universalists & monoculturalists (politics as a top-down engineering project)

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