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nntaleb's profile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Verified account
@nntaleb

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Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account

@nntaleb

Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages.

realworldrisk.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 20 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted Gary Ruskin

      You can see Monsanto bribing educators to promote their "science" on social media. By some coincidence the same ones who tried a character assassination on yours truly. Monsanto worked hard to make people believe that SCIENTISM = SCIENCEhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/987090232351735813 …

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb added,

      Gary RuskinVerified account @garyruskin
      Here @jonentine of @GeneticLiteracy, @kevinfolta and @SimplotCompany plan an "initiative" to promote #GMOs via social media http://bit.ly/2qMmY1K  See starting p. 3. pic.twitter.com/ZZqKZY28Ns
      14 replies 148 retweets 363 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 20 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet

      For those who don't get it, our precautionary principle page & the computational class for GMOs. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html …pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv

      6 replies 59 retweets 170 likes
      Show this thread
      Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 21 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet

      It takes bet 45 minutes & a week to convince a smart person that GMOs are an intellectual fraud, not science but scientism, that supporters are not "skeptics" but shills, etc. Takes only 30 seconds to convince a computer scientist. Just mention P/NP and they get it instantly.

      7:30 AM - 21 Apr 2018
      • 69 Retweets
      • 246 Likes
      • Saber Sayadi Garin jmce 🏴 Зелено движение Felix Camacho Dixit Nicholas Gatti Rohan Mehere El Xinet Xin Xin
      24 replies 69 retweets 246 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable
        2. GuruAnaerobic‏ @GuruAnaerobic 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @JackieWicks @nntaleb

          Is this true? do you have a link?

          3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @GuruAnaerobic @JackieWicks

          Yes, please.

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Mark McAndrew‏ @markmcan 23 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb @GuruAnaerobic @JackieWicks

          Farmers don't grow GMO wheat. This is a hoax

          0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 22 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb

          Hi, computer scientist here. Not convinced.

          12 replies 8 retweets 115 likes
        3. Kishavan Bhola‏ @KishavanBhola 22 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @VitalikButerin @nntaleb

          I’m not surprised you don’t get it, Vitalik. You’ve always been bad at understanding catastrophic tail risks (hence your support for centralization vs high fees, bail outs vs immutability, and cult of personality vs leaderless).

          4 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
        4. Maximilian Kogler‏ @MaxieKogler 22 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KishavanBhola @VitalikButerin @nntaleb

          "always" - as in the 1.5 years you have heard of @VitalikButerin ;-) it's true that tail risk is undervalued - often. but in a lot of cases it's overvalued. that's why, e.g., the insurance industry is a profitable one... and selling index options is profitable (vs equity options)

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        5. tib‏ @tib Jun 25
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @MaxieKogler @KishavanBhola and

          The insurance industry is profitable exactly because they do not face tail risk since they cap the maximum payout in the contract.

          0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. M. Eric DeFazio‏ @edefazio 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb

          i *think* this might be because practicing computer scientists are steeped in "complex systems" that (on the surface) seem simple (travelling salesman problem) ...but in practice hard/impossible... no bullshitting in the low level details

          2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
        3. M. Eric DeFazio‏ @edefazio 21 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @edefazio @nntaleb

          GMO analogy: expert writes a billion line OS OS is modified (one line at a time) by a novice unfamiliar with programming to improve "efficiency" along one dimension OS is integrated & distributed into every phone/tablet/computer on the planet & expected to never fail

          3 replies 6 retweets 25 likes
        4. Lora Boteva‏ @destwoyer 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @edefazio @nntaleb

          And then the novice accuses everyone who cautions against their "improvements" of being stupid and not understanding science

          1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
        5. M. Eric DeFazio‏ @edefazio 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @destwoyer @nntaleb

          "I tested it! worked on my machine!" --- (SCYENCE)

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Hole'd up‏ @CollisBunker 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb

          Now that Bayer purchased Monsanto they can cure the illnesses they inflict on people. Closed loop business model

          2 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
        3. (((Péng Dawei)))  🇹🇼‏ @elementary_peng 21 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @CollisBunker @nntaleb

          Not cure, treat. Treating illness generates more profit than curing it.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. topkara‏ @topkara 22 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb

          For those “computer scientists” who don’t get it: natural selection over thousands of years is non-deterministic computation in polynomial time (NP), lab experiments in 10 years is deterministic in polynomial time (P). Gabish?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Rob Bairos‏ @rbairos 23 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @topkara @nntaleb

          So you're against breeding in general? Where in your facile spectrum do the other dozen or so breeding methods used throughout history fit, including organic-industry accepted mutagenesis?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. topkara‏ @topkara 23 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @rbairos @nntaleb

          Let me help you: You don’t even get the difference between cutting corners and taking a step.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Rob Bairos‏ @rbairos 24 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @topkara @nntaleb

          I'm sure you'll be happy to find a convenient definition of which is which in this case.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. Monsanto Shill Detector‏ @Monsantobuster 22 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb

          Some idiots or shills doing philosophie of science are not getting the point that Pascal’s wager != ergodicity/survival.https://www.reddit.com/r/badmathematics/comments/8dxoip/p_v_np_and_some_bad_science/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Mark McAndrew‏ @markmcan 23 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @nntaleb

          I run an IT firm. GMO is perfectly safe and the key to feeding 10Bn+ people when mined, finite fertiliser runs out. P/NP is irrelevant. Also, as wheat farmers don't grow GMO wheat, you just fell for an egregious hoax and proved both confirmation bias and lack of expertise on this

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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