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nntaleb's profile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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@nntaleb

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Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account

@nntaleb

Flaneur: probability (philosophy, mathematics), probability (real life), Phoenician wine, deadlifts & dead languages. Greco-Levantine. #RWRI. Uber rating ~4.9

youtube.com/playlist?list=…
Joined September 2011

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    Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 25 Apr 2020

    “I love models,” he adds. “I do a lot of mathematical modeling myself." No you don't, "Johny evidence" Ioannidis. Science" is not about asymmetry in decisions: we didn't wait for scientific evidence to know not to jump from a cliff. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176 … via @WSJ

    5:40 PM - 25 Apr 2020
    • 214 Retweets
    • 1,000 Likes
    • Bazaari, show coal some ❤️ Sam Neish Jonathan Moreno Narváez Data Enigma Stefan Gasic deepstuff Emmanuel Detrinidad Klaas Mensaert Martín Mayer
    67 replies 214 retweets 1,000 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 26 Apr 2020

        Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted Nassim Nicholas Taleb

        A reasoning mistake by Johnny Evidencehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354 …

        Nassim Nicholas Taleb added,

        Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account @nntaleb
        John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth & should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen's ineq. pic.twitter.com/XGUtqlR2py
        Show this thread
        10 replies 17 retweets 94 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 26 Apr 2020

        Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted Nassim Nicholas Taleb

        Thread on errors in growth of pandemicshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254132648185921537?s=20 …

        Nassim Nicholas Taleb added,

        Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account @nntaleb
        Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/1StNQ7XFim
        Show this thread
        3 replies 14 retweets 43 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Dr Science‏ @SimonTemplarPV 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @physicsman @nntaleb @WSJ

        Yeah there’s plenty of scientific evidence on cliff jumping and has been for millions of years...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. John Collias‏ @JohnJcollias 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @nntaleb @WSJ

        Too funny NNT😂

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. MicMars‏ @IAmMicMars 25 Apr 2020

        He's a real Gary Count

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. End of conversation
      1. Leylin chase‏ @LeylinChase 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @nntaleb @WSJ

        @nntaleb what do you think of the Markov model is I'm finance?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Amin‏ @Amin_BCX 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @nntaleb @WSJ

        Actually you do, doctors wait for analysis and careful testing data before you come to diagnosis and give medicine, because unlike politics, your main concern IS NOT to avoid blame, but avoid misdiagnosis, you won't be told you had the best of intentions and acted quickly, so A+

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Amin‏ @Amin_BCX 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @Amin_BCX @nntaleb @WSJ

        All emergencies are emergencies and anything could be anything, not an excuse to do whatever just to show that you care or are nimble or whatever...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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