A reminder of the type of arguments that will cause humanity to go extinct. Systematically blocked.pic.twitter.com/6HU00tHCTU
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A reminder of the type of arguments that will cause humanity to go extinct. Systematically blocked.pic.twitter.com/6HU00tHCTU
1) The point is that you can be wrong a zillion times; doesn't matter if all it takes is once to hit extinction.
2) It's remarkable how pple who learn statistics become dangerously stupid, like this "professor" @AlexColangelo
Car accidents are thin-tailed, never multiplicativepic.twitter.com/P3z8qdJHvQ
Almost all of psychology texts (on psych of risk) miss the point.https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1221468544082284547?s=20 …
My point of crying wolf during the Ebola episode.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM …
This is right on target. Catastrophic impacts mean rapid action is needed whose immediate cost is large (in behavior change and money) but whose total cost is small compared to the destruction that would otherwise happen. Seehttps://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics …
Here are the simple model videos we made to communicate the challenge of contagion by air transport today. Nobody is safe anymore. From Africa it just takes a bit more timepic.twitter.com/v0qNMGqCGB
I live 500km from Wuhan. Your analysis is not just correct; I used your principles from the Incerto to stock up in time on nonperishable food for 3 months. I did so before everybody else even thought about it. Now, no non-perishable food remains in most shops.
The best time to panic is before everyone else does.
Them: “We panicked about Ebola, and that turned out fine. It’s all hype.” It turned out “fine” *because* we panicked about it. Panic, in many cases, is advantageous to long-term survival. It is focused vigilance and deliberate action, which contains the problem.
Problem is, since it started in communist China they government did everything wrong in the beginning to "save face". Nobody got quarantined early on. Hell, doctors there don't even wash their hands between patients.
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