Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account

@nntaleb

Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages.

realworldrisk.com
Joined September 2011
1,454 Photos and videos Photos and videos

Tweets

You blocked @nntaleb

Are you sure you want to view these Tweets? Viewing Tweets won't unblock @nntaleb

  1. 2 hours ago

    Solution for the Christmas binge: Fast 45 hours, visit the gym during the fast, and you are done.

    36 replies 48 retweets 298 likes
  2. 3 hours ago

    So we can call it the Tolstoy-Friedman rule. Milton Friedman (who was a remarkable statistician) used to tell students: "If you don't see it in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), it's not there."

    6 replies 28 retweets 127 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  3. 6 hours ago

    In other words, as Tolstoy told us: "You can be linear in only one way, nonlinear in zillions of ways."

    11 replies 47 retweets 218 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  4. 6 hours ago

    A detail every appliedprobastatisticists needs to spot. Whenever it's not a straight line, R^2 cannot be what is claimed because we lose degrees of freedom from fittin *which* nonlinearity. Insight from Milton Friedman. and I will diskuss in our new book.

    Here's more on the debate about the source of high US health care spending. | “Are high US healthcare costs just an illusion?” by Hubert Biscuit Note that nothing here argues for or against prices as the predominant factor.
    4 replies 31 retweets 108 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  5. 7 hours ago

    3) The point is not that he thought that Debt =>Wealth, but that what he had constituted a definitive "scientific proof" and that, to him, the problem was settled.

    16 replies 25 retweets 191 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  6. 11 hours ago

    Nice to see legal theorists catching up to the minority ruuuuuuule.

    4 replies 38 retweets 162 likes
  7. 12 hours ago

    His "proof" was: Debt was up => GDP/inventions went up. He could not get that, also "Smoking went up => GDP went up" or "pollution => GDP went up". So I called him an idiot.

    27 replies 84 retweets 484 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  8. 12 hours ago

    I once called Michael Wolf (Trump's biographer) a IDIOT to his face at a London dinner Q&A event 6 years ago. (He claimed having an "indisputable scientific proof" that debt "caused" prosperity, the industrial/technological revolutions...)

    60 replies 306 retweets 975 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  9. 23 hours ago

    Antifragile: stress, and only stress improve bone density. 6 years later.

    Despite widespread availability and use of calcium and vitamin D to prevent osteoporotic fractures, this meta-analysis of 33 clinical trials found no effect of the supplements' use on hip, other nonvertebral, vertebral, or total fractures
    31 replies 247 retweets 735 likes
  10. Jan 7

    Yuuuuge point by Roger Makhlouf: We don't quite and never had “ص”, “ض”, “ط” in Lebanese. It is just the "Basta aleph"

    5 replies 7 retweets 17 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  11. Jan 7

    One see an explanation to the statement by Jelinek: "when you fire a linguist, speech recognition improves".

    8 replies 16 retweets 92 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  12. Retweeted
    Jan 7

    This is what I love about Twitter. shared a video on classifying languages with dimensional reduction (PCA) instead of pre-cut categories. The task of escaping categories is pervasive. Eg is IKEA a furniture store; is Basecamp project mangement?

    Explaining most of the problems
    Show this thread
    2 replies 26 retweets 140 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  13. Jan 7

    Explaining most of the problems

    6 replies 28 retweets 129 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  14. Jan 7

    A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: "Would I rather be him/her, or I'd rather be me?" before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders.

    62 replies 946 retweets 2,743 likes
  15. Jan 7

    4) The heuristic is as follows: You know someone will side with Trump, not his detractor, REGARDLESS OF THE ARGUMENT, if the person would rather be Trump when he/she grows up than the detractor. Gabish?

    1) When a collection of journos getting around minimum wage call someone consistently successful "an idiot", one is entitled to invoke Wittgenstein's ruler: you don't just use a ruler to measure the table, but the table to measure the ruler. (in Fooled by Randomness)
    Show this thread
    12 replies 47 retweets 179 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  16. Jan 7

    Except when n=1 matters (large deviation in a Fat Tailed domain).

    People who try to look smart by pointing out obvious exceptions actually signal the opposite.
    8 replies 31 retweets 245 likes
  17. Jan 7

    2) I mean that when it's cold, you try to do things to just stay warm (higher entropy), when it's hot you try to be as inactive as possible (min entropy). And when you are Mediterranean you cheat with spezzatura.

    26 replies 43 retweets 207 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  18. Jan 7

    CONJECTURE du jour: When I first encountered ENTROPY, years ago, it hit me that: + In cold countries, civilizations are built to maximize entropy, + In hot ones, civilizations are built to minimize entropy, + the Med, uniquely, does both or neither. (this morning, in Celsius)

    39 replies 86 retweets 282 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  19. Jan 7

    Answering

    4 replies 10 retweets 38 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  20. Jan 6

    The discussion that helped finish my book. We need a second on religion, rationality & risk bearing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty

    23 replies 121 retweets 558 likes

@nntaleb hasn't Tweeted yet.

Loading seems to be taking a while.

Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

    You may also like

    ·