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nilskappelmann's profile
Nils Kappelmann
Nils Kappelmann
Nils Kappelmann
@nilskappelmann

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Nils Kappelmann

@nilskappelmann

PhD student @mpi_psychiatry. Interested in mental health, research, & science communication (@PsycTransmitter). Passionate about climbing.

Munich, Bavaria
Joined September 2017

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    Nils Kappelmann‏ @nilskappelmann 22 Aug 2018

    Impressive(ly worrying) demonstration of how negative results of #antidepressant medication (& #psychotherapy) trials get lost in the literature. Study by de Vries, @pimcuijpers @MarcusMunafo, et al. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medicine/article/cumulative-effect-of-reporting-and-citation-biases-on-the-apparent-efficacy-of-treatments-the-case-of-depression/71D73CADE32C0D3D996DABEA3FCDBF57#fndtn-information …pic.twitter.com/Joh4PJfcYs

    6:27 AM - 22 Aug 2018
    • 607 Retweets
    • 885 Likes
    • Mateusz Dominiczak Eure Durchleucht 💀 OneDarkHorse Dr Manjit Matharu Kees l'Olandese Ludvig Ekman Thomas Lepoutre LWweb2dot0 Lucie H
    24 replies 607 retweets 885 likes
      1. Nils Kappelmann‏ @nilskappelmann 22 Aug 2018

        Important to emphasise that bias does not mean these treatments are ineffective, they only point out possible effect overestimation in the literature. Bias needs to be quantified, adjusted for, and circumvented in future studies (e.g., using registered reports)

        1 reply 8 retweets 52 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Matan Mazor‏ @mazormatan 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @nilskappelmann @MarcusMunafo @pimcuijpers

        A bit ironic that they write "While this might suggest a synergistic effect between spin and citation biases [...], this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.50), likely due to the small sample size.". Isn't this a spin by itself?

        2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
      3. Nils Kappelmann‏ @nilskappelmann 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @mazormatan @MarcusMunafo @pimcuijpers

        I'd say it's a spin if all results are interpreted in one direction or there is at least a systematic interpretational imbalance. As long as such interpretations serve valid discussion, they are important to qualify results though. Difficult balance in any case

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @nilskappelmann @mazormatan @pimcuijpers

        Here we're describing a pattern in our data which is consistent with a similar pattern observed in a previous larger analysis of citations in a different literature. (1/3)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @MarcusMunafo @nilskappelmann and

        I think this is different to over-selling new findings don't closely match previous findings (but then I guess I would say that!) (2/3)

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      6. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @MarcusMunafo @nilskappelmann and

        Similarly, I think describing the large P-value as potentially due to low power is justified (or at least justifiable) here, for similar reasons. (3/3)

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      7. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @MarcusMunafo @nilskappelmann and

        Although with hindsight the wording is unfortunate, or doesn't provide a full explanation, but the format meant we had to be VERY concise! (4/3)

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      8. Matan Mazor‏ @mazormatan 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @MarcusMunafo @nilskappelmann @pimcuijpers

        Hmm. If for a given test you would believe only positive results and dismiss negative results as "likely due to the small N", maybe better not to perform this test in the first place? (1/3)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      9. Matan Mazor‏ @mazormatan 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @mazormatan @MarcusMunafo and

        I agree it's not clear from the text that the intention is to support a previous finding with a bigger N, but if this is the case maybe the problem is not the small N but the inadequacy of NHST to answer such questions? (2/3)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      10. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Will king‏ @King2980 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @nilskappelmann @ProfJillCook and

        Shocking but drugs are big business these companies have millions maybe billions riding on certain drug trials! There is a reason GSK, Pfizer, shire etc are some of the biggest most profitable companies in the world! they should only be trialled by an independent research body?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Ollie Östlund‏ @OstlundOllie 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @King2980 @nilskappelmann and

        If you look closer at what is done, the gold standard used is the FDA review of the complete reports provided by the sponsor. The claimed spin/biasing occurs in "scientific publications" with academic lead authors. The latter is a nonsense game played by academics for money+fame.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Ollie Östlund‏ @OstlundOllie 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @OstlundOllie @King2980 and

        Perhaps a bit harshly formulated, I'm just getting more and more annoyed with the unhealthy scientific journal-academic research business. I understand @stephensenn's point that “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2014/05/30/jane-feinmann-is-the-current-system-of-publishing-clinical-trials-fit-for-purpose/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @OstlundOllie @King2980 and

        I’m not sure it’s that harsh - the fundemental problem is that scientists aren’t currently incentivised to be right, just to publish, get grants etc.

        2 replies 5 retweets 16 likes
      6. Will king‏ @King2980 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @MarcusMunafo @OstlundOllie and

        That’s a great leveller in the NHS people I’ve come into contact doing research are passionate about finding the truth-be that positive or negative about a given intervention/phenomenon. I’m sure it’s not all roses here as well research is a ‘business’ and super competitive.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @King2980 @OstlundOllie and

        Don’t get me wrong: scientists in academia want to find the truth too - that’s why nearly everyone goes into science - but current incentives shape behaviour (mostly unconsciously) in ways that aren’t good for science.

        1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      8. Will king‏ @King2980 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @MarcusMunafo @OstlundOllie and

        Great to get opinions on this in a constructive way I’m a relative novice in research seeing things from my little world so good to get as many opinions as possible and try stay open.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      9. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 23 Aug 2018
        Replying to @King2980 @OstlundOllie and

        Have you seen this?https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-016-0021 …

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      10. 2 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Jen Burgess‏ @jlburgess1987 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @nilskappelmann @vaughanbell and

        This graph is total #academiagoals

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      3. Jen Burgess‏ @jlburgess1987 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @jlburgess1987 @nilskappelmann and

        Wait maybe it's not a graph? Is it an infographic? What do I call this beautiful creature?!?!

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. Marcus Munafò‏ @MarcusMunafo 22 Aug 2018
        Replying to @jlburgess1987 @nilskappelmann and

        I’d go with infographic. Glad you like it!

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      5. End of conversation

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