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Nikolaus von Twickel πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί
@niktwick
Analyst focused on eastern πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦, editor at Past , , n.vontwickel@greyfriars.oxon.org | berlin.social/@niktwick
WriterBerlin, Deutschlandcivicmonitoring.orgJoined January 2009

Nikolaus von Twickel πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ίβ€™s Tweets

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In my annual report for I argue that after eight years of β€œexternal control” of the β€žPeople’s Republicsβ€œ, Russia got a propaganda dividend, a pretext for its war against Ukraine and lots of cannon fodder for its underperforming military
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Remember Yellow River?
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Ukraine has been prompt to accuse Russia of blowing up the dam, and although the Russians have issued their usual conflicted denials/counteraccusations, I find Kyiv's claims a lot more credible. For one thing, Kyiv warned as far back as Oct. 2022 that Russia had mined the dam.
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Alongside all the war crimes and attempted genocide those ruling the Russian state have now decided to perpetrate ecocide on a colossal scale too
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Video footage of the dam shows a major breach in the section of the dam closest to the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the river. Flooding is expected to reach critical levels at around 11 a.m., according to local authorities. kyivindependent.com/southern-opera
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Important thread from , head of Ukraine’s State Agency for Restoration, who lays out the history and implications of the Nova Khakova dam in light of its destruction today.
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1/6 Last night, Russian occupation forces blew up the Kahovka hydroelectric power station. This object is one of the largest energy facilities and contains about 18 million cubic meters of water.
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On Sunday, we saw hundreds of thousands Poles marching for democracy. But what about the country’s regime? What state is it in? My and take in today.
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"In the rush to acclaim Poland and present a united front, Western politicians have overlooked something at their cost,” write @KarolinaWigura and Jaroslaw Kuisz. β€œFar from receding, Polish illiberalism is alive and well.” nyti.ms/3OX97l1
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This is big and potentially very bad.
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The enormous Kakhovka dam, which spans frontlines across the Dnipro river in southern Ukraine, has been blown up. The flooding could submerge areas downstream, putting parts of Kherson (controlled by Ukraine) and the nearby Zaporizhzhiya power plant (held by Russia) at risk.
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But I found this in the internet β€œΠΠ·Π΅Ρ€Π±Π°ΠΉΠ΄ΠΆΠ°Π½ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ Π§Π’Πš ΠœΠΈΡΡ‚Π΅Ρ€ Π‘ΠΈΠ΄Ρ€ ΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Ρ€ΡˆΠΈΠ»Π° контрнаступ Π² Ульяновской области”
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Cannot find information why Azerbaijani businessman Anar Guseinov named his cider company β€œAndi”..
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Dozens of Russians have got poisoned, at least 16 died from drinking "Mister Cider" in three regions.... Police is confiscating thousands of liters of the poisonous drink from Russian shops. kommersant.ru/doc/6028057
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As Ukraine has received overwhelmingly positive coverage since Russia invaded, officials have also become increasingly sensitive and controlling.
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New in the @semafor media newsletter: NYT and NBC reporters covering the war in Ukraine had their press credentials revoked by Ukrainian officials over stories and images the government didn't like. semafor.com/article/06/04/
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PSYOPs, 2023 edition.
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A deep fake Putin announcing mass mobilisation in Russia may be one part of what seems to be a hacking attack coinciding with Ukrainian counter-offensives in the east & south today. TVs in Crimea were reportedly broadcasting Ukrainian propaganda yesterday
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And he is not a random LtCol. And he was clearly beaten. Whose next?
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PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut. They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC… Show more
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Really enjoyed this podcast today.
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On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I discuss Ukraine on the eve of its long-awaited spring offensive with @sherr_james & @apmassaro3 powervertical.org/2023/06/02/ukr
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Prigozhin publishes video in which a Russian armed forces (!) lieutenant colonel "confesses" ordering his men to shoot at a lorry w Wagner mercs...
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Β«Π’Π°Π³Π½Π΅Ρ€ΠΎΠ²Ρ†Ρ‹Β» взяли Π² ΠΏΠ»Π΅Π½ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΊΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° Π’Π‘ Π Π€. Π•Π³ΠΎ ΠΎΠ±Π²ΠΈΠ½ΡΡŽΡ‚ Π² ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡ€ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡƒΡ‚Π΅ΠΉ ΠΎΡ‚Ρ…ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈΠ· Π‘Π°Ρ…ΠΌΡƒΡ‚Π° для Π½Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ² β€” Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ΠΎ допроса theins.ru/news/262295
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Very good article! Turns out that these gas formations are a relatively minor contribution to Russian forces.
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β€œThey said: β€˜don’t worry, you won’t be getting all that sour cabbage from the army. Everything will be provided by us’.” An investigation into the Gazprom recruits fighting in Ukraine, in battalions called Potok and Fakel β€” on.ft.com/42j8uW4
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If Nato sticks to the principle that a Nato-Russia military confrontation is to be avoided, Ukraine will only be able to join the alliance after the end of the ongoing war. Which means there will be zero interest in Moscow in formally ending hostilities. Dilemma.
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On Ukraine's Nato membership, Washington, Paris and Berlin have not really moved on from the 2008 Bukarest promise that the door is open in principle. Some do package this reality more nicely than others, but on substance they're not (yet?) willing to provide a defense guarantee.
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Worth watching #Tolstoy confessing his sins (RU) vesti.ru/television/art
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This form of self-criticism remembers the darkest times of communism, in Stalin's SU as well as in Mao's CPR. Pyotr Tolstoy, vice speaker of the Duma says on TV that he feels "global guilt" for "my terrible sin" of having once studied in the US. rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/64
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Random Georgian language tweet of the day: I find pronouncing "Baqaqi tsqalshi qiqinebs" doable, but keep struggling with the (noble?) family name αƒ¬αƒ˜αƒœαƒαƒ›αƒ«αƒ¦αƒ•αƒ αƒ˜αƒ¨αƒ•αƒ˜αƒšαƒ˜ (Tsinamdzghvrishvili)
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"Konstantin Kalachev... described #Prigozhin as someone who has evolved with the zeitgeist in Russia, shifting from convict to children’s author, friend of the president and mercenary leader."
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Almost 20 years ago, the Wagner leader penned a playful children’s story with his son and daughter. themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/01/wag
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Has there been an actual example of a false flag in Russia this year? Even one? Every prediction about them so far has been wrong. Belgorod? Byransk? Airfields? The Kremlin? All of these were Ukraine, and there hasn't been any significant escalation from Russia in response.
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This drone attack on Moscow feels like something that Russia’s security services would organize, especially that it’s hitting buildings. Very familiar to FSB
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