1/ Executive orders rarely have immediate legal effect. They're marching orders to agencies. This one is no different.
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Here's the fact sheet on the president's executive order. A few thoughts:https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/918481607337697280 …
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2/ As a legal matter, nothing changes the moment that Trump signs the E.O. We'll have to see what Labor and HHS do.
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3/ That's why it's weird to ask whether the E.O. is legal. It doesn't have any independent force.
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4/ What matters is whether what the agencies eventually do is legal. And there, we only have the sketchiest sense of what's coming.
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5/ For my money, the biggest surprise in the EO is that it doesn't ask Labor to allow association health plans to market to individuals.
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6/ Labor will just redraft rules to allow small employers to band together. That's problematic but it doesn't imperil the individual market.
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7/ We can only speculate why the administration dropped the more aggressive proposal to allow AHPs to market to individuals.
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8/ But I bet that they realized pretty fast that they'd have to break the law -- in particular, ERISA -- in order to do so.
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9/ As ugly as the EO is, maybe there's a tiny silver lining. Maybe the rule of law still matters, even to the Trump administration.
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10/ At any rate, the most significant portion of the EO relates not to AHPs, but to short-term plans.
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11/ Here's the take-home message: "Make Garbage Insurance Great Again."
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12/ The damage to the Obamacare exchanges could be severe. But the damage will also be quite variable.
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13/ The states should still retain authority to regulate short-term plans -- and to require them to adhere to ACA rules.
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14/ If so, the administration's actions will matter most in red states and less in blue states. It's federalism through the back door.
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15/ Last point: I don't see why this EO has received all this attention. It's a promise to make changes; it doesn't itself change anything.
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16/ It's like the first EO that Trump signed on health reform: long on promises, short on action.
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17/ It's a chance for Trump to look like he's doing "something." But he's not, or at least not yet.
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18/ I want to see what the agencies actually DO, not some vague instructions about what they SHOULD do.
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19/ Until then, it's just grandstanding. /fin
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