Jony Ive, Chief Design Officer for the entire smartphone industry.
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Neil Cybart
@neilcybart
Apple / tech analysis. Founder/author AboveAvalon.com () and InsideOrchard.com (). Focusing is about saying no.
Neil Cybart’s posts
I spent some time using Apple Vision Pro.
Apple has something big here, and they know it. This is the future of computing. My experience was trippy, freaky. Hard to describe but almost like a dream. Spatial photos/video gave me goosebumps. Will revolutionize memories.
1/ A few hours ago, this tweet came to my attention. It's about AirPods revenue and it's not correct. AirPods revenue does not exceed Spotify, Twitter, Snapchat, and Shopify revenue. It's not even close either.
Apple just updated the iPod touch.
Interesting marketing angle: "Group FaceTime and augmented reality starting at just $199."
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The iPhone 11 Pro Max camera is impressive.
Google: Nest Secure is getting an update. You can now use Nest Guard as a Google Assistant speaker.
Users: Wait, there's a microphone in Nest Guard?
Google: Oops. Looks like we forgot to tell you that there's a microphone. Our bad. It's never been on though. Trust us.
Users: -
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I spent about 30 minutes using Apple Vision Pro. Went through 15 or so different things. Slight learning curve to use, but by the end I was navigating 3-4 steps, including moving between apps on my own just fine. A very surreal experience. Makes iPhones, iPads, Macs feel dated.
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Netflix gradually increasing subscription pricing is not surprising. The company has no choice but to raise prices. The additional cash flow is needed to fund original content. Simply growing the number of users isn't enough. aboveavalon.com/notes/2018/10/
This is super cool. The Apple event logo in AR resembles opening and closing a MacBook.
A new MacBook powered by Apple Silicon is coming.
If this Samsung Fold hardware issue happened to a new Apple product, people would be calling for Jony’s and Tim’s head. Apple’s culture would also be questioned. Happens to Samsung, collective reaction is “Crazy stuff. Wow.” Yet, Samsung is viewed as a HW leader. Double Standard.
Wow. Very candid remarks from Elon Musk about Apple's automobile ambitions.
global.handelsblatt.com/edition/271/re
(ht )
For years, Apple reported ~$20 billion of Mac revenue annually. Apple just reported $10 billion of Mac between January and March and that included supply issues.
Samsung is now displaying this message every time you turn on or charge a Galaxy Note 7. Next step will be bricking the phone
Unprecedented
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Jony checking out the iPhone 11 Pro Max.
(He got yelled out by the Apple worker for touching the device.)
Autonomous cars will be here in:
Tesla: 2 yrs
Toyota: 4 yrs
Ford: 5 yrs
BMW: 5 yrs
Lyft: 5 yrs
Uber: Depends
GOOG: 3-30 yrs
AAPL: What car?
Apple had the FBI arrest a former Project Titan employee for allegedly stealing trade secrets. He left Apple to work for a Chinese autonomous car startup. He was arrested at San Jose International Airport trying to leave the country for China.
macrumors.com/2018/07/10/app
Apple does something (remove headphone jack, include notch). Tech folks go crazy. Article after article is written about how Apple lost its mind.
Others eventually copy Apple (poorly copy I must add). Tech world couldn't care less. "Everyone has a notch now"
When Apple was contemplating Apple Watch in the early 2010s, Wall Street said Apple was making a mistake because the watch market wasn't large enough. Apple saw the wrist's potential. Five years after launch, Apple Watch outsold the entire Swiss watch industry by 2.4x in 2020.
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Tried to capture the Apple Watch’s always on display. Essentially, you see a dimmed version.
We may have just gotten the “Steve Ballmer” for Apple Vision Pro courtesy of Mark Zuckerberg and his email to Meta employees.
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4 / What is the lesson here?
Misinformation is rampant. Be careful what you link to / retweet on Twitter.
(By the way, the article in question put AirPods revenue at $12 billion in 2019. The actual number will end up being more like half that - closer to $7.5 billion.)
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iPhone 11 Pro Max. The back feels like a MacBook. Substantial difference when in hand versus iPhone XS Pro.
It is uncanny how similar Zuckerberg's comments are to Steve Ballmer on the iPhone. Ballmer laughed because iPhone was too expensive and he liked Nokia's low cost strategy. He mentioned sales too. Zuckerberg made the same exact points only with headsets.
youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h
Apple updated the Mac Pro image on its website.
I think the rationale behind the change is pretty obvious.
To get “fitted” for Apple Vision Pro for the demo, I had my face & ears scanned, and if you wear glasses (I do) your prescription is needed. Apple took my glasses to get my prescription. Once on head, and straps adjusted, eye tracking is set up via an easy onboarding process.
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Let's be crystal clear here:
Apple Watch crushed Fitbit so badly that selling itself was its best option.
This is an interesting chart. Former McKinsey consultants hold power inside all of the tech giants except for one very big exception. ft.com/content/81ff3f
h/t
Mary Meeker's "Internet Trends" slide deck
(number of slides)
2011: 66
2012: 112
2013: 117
2014: 164
2015: 196
2016: 213
2017: 355
Apple just released 1Q20 earnings:
$91.8 billion of revenue
$4.99 earnings per share (EPS)
My estimates were:
$89.6 billion of revenue
$4.70 EPS
Wow.
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I don't think pricing / user growth is Netflix's problem. Instead, the largest risk is found w/ subscriber engagement. If engagement falls due to competition (Disney being the big one, but Amazon, WarnerMedia, Apple as well), the Netflix feedback loop breaks apart.
There it is. AirPods are now broken out as their own category on Apple's masthead. AirPods were previously positioned as accessories under multiple product categories.
The problem isn’t that Apple included a silicone base on HomePod.
The problem is that Apple didn’t include a disclaimer that said silicone may not play nicely with certain wood finishes.
January 2007: Steve Jobs announces Apple was dropping "Computer" from its name and was going to be called simply Apple Inc.
He spent a grand total of 42 seconds announcing the name change before moving on.
youtube.com/watch?v=x3sg8b
Apple will sell more iPhone X units today than Google will sell Pixel smartphones over the next year.
Stop grading Google on a curve.
2009: I'm not sure I need an iPhone. I have a laptop.
2015: I'm not sure I need a laptop. I have an iPhone.
iPhone 11 Pro Max box vs. iPhone 12 Pro box
Removing the USB-C power adapter and EarPods results in a surprisingly compact box. It’s basically half the size.
Netflix is raising subscription pricing by 13% to 18%. The most popular subscription will be $13 per month (up from $11 per month). Price increases will roll out to existing subscribers over the next three months.
Quote
Replying to @neilcybart
Reminds me of that photo of the first iPhone in a display box, surrounded by people with digital cameras and Camcorders
CBS: Apple has a "big announcement" tomorrow that isn't a new product. Gayle King claims Apple's announcement is bigger and better than a new product. Hmmm.
A different view of Steve Jobs Theater. Pretty much entirely underground. Stadium seating (1,000 seats total).
Not including a USB power adapter results in a notable reduction in Apple Watch packaging. Here’s Series 6 packaging compared to Series 5. Also included Series 2 (includes a band) as a blast from the past.
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An "Apple Stores as vaccination sites" announcement makes sense to me.
1) King did the interview at an Apple Store.
2) Vaccines are certainly more important than new products.
3) Apple has been very aggressive in trying to help where it can regarding battling the pandemic.
Apple only showed people wearing Vision Pro while seated on a couch. That's a lazy future that I just don't want. It made me more excited that the metaverse future we are building here at Meta will succeed.
Apple just released 3Q20 earnings:
$59.7 billion of revenue
$2.58 earnings per share (EPS)
My estimates were:
$52.7 billion of revenue
$2.09 EPS
WOW. Shockingly strong numbers from Apple.
Number of devices Apple sold per day last quarter:
iPhone: 519,000
iPad: 115,000
Mac: 60,000
Apple Watch: 31,000
85% of iPhone users have a model older than the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro (my estimate). Something to think about whenever iPhone upgrading is discussed. The vast majority of iPhone users do not upgrade each year.
Some legacy Mac users who grew up with the Mac will always look at the iPad as an inferior computer. Many more people who grew up with iPhones and iPads will view the Mac as an unnecessary machine meant to handle older workflows.
Not a good sign for Mastoden.
The past two months represented one of the best environments for the service to get new users. Data shows few joined (relatively speaking) and a large portion of those who did join are now losing interest.
Apple TV+ is live.
Apple included a little surprise. The first 2 episodes of every launch series are now available for everyone in the Apple TV app without the need for any subscription or free trial.
Despite being a $2.4 trillion dollar company, Apple can still fit all of its products on one table.
Disney's Bob Iger resigned from Apple's board the day Apple unveiled its Apple TV+ pricing strategy.
Tesla statement on the first Autopilot fatality.
teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-lo
Disney just filed an 8-K outlining how its business is being affected by coronavirus. In summary: It's not pretty.
- Theme parks closed
- Cruises / theatrical shows suspended
- Film releases delayed
- Ad sales down
- Live sports cancelled
- TV and movie production halted
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Here’s Jony Ive (back in 2014) responding to an audience question about whether he is flattered that Xiaomi copies Apple design:
The breath of Apple's announcements is impressive.
FaceTime, iMessage, iPadOS, privacy, health, wrist wearables, mapping, audio advancements, iCloud+ and that's the first 70 mins of the keynote.
It's becoming incredibly difficult for competitors to go up against this.
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3 / The blue links lead to:
- A Forbes article based on bad Ming-Chi Kuo #'s.
- An AppleInsider article based on bad Counterpoint Research #'s.
- A Bloomberg article with a highly questionable / hedged assertion.
And...
- Two undisclosed Amazon affiliate links (SURPRISE!)
Here are Apple's granular 2Q21 results:
- iPhone revenue: $47.9B (my estimate: $39.1B)
- Services revenue: $16.9B (my estimate: $16.3B)
- Mac: $9.1B (vs. my $7.7B)
- Wearables / Home etc.: $7.8B (my estimate: $8.1B)
- iPad: $7.8B (vs. my $6.3B)
Strong numbers across the board.
Analyst to Tim Cook: Why aren't you buying Netflix or Peloton?
Tim Cook: We are always looking at companies to buy. We buy smaller companies that are strategic for IP and talent. We don't discount something larger either. I'm not going to go through my list with you on this call
Steve Jobs on why former consultants don't hold power within Apple.
These videos are gold. Nothing / no one from today compares.
h/t
youtube.com/watch?v=-c4CNB
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iPhone 11. Reminds me of iPhone XS Max. Doesn’t feel “low end.”
Whenever I think about companies searching for HQ locations, I come back to the Cupertino city council asking Steve Jobs if Apple could provide free Wi-Fi to city residents.
Steve's answer: I'm a simpleton. We pay taxes & the city should do those things.
youtube.com/watch?v=22ipQl
The auto industry is historically risk averse when it comes to design. Radical ideas (like Tesla Cybertruck) do exist, they just don't make it to market. Instead, they are watered down and de-risked in order to sell in volume.
Tesla isn't watering anything down.
Twitter right now:
- Politics Twitter: The U.S. / China trade war is hurting American companies.
- Tech Twitter: Told you. Told you. Told you. The iPhone is too expensive. And dongles. Too many dongles. And headphone jacks.
- Media Twitter: I didn't upgrade my iPhone last year.
Foxconn workers would rather quit than work on a non-Apple product because they would lose certain protections enforced by Apple.
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Some juicy Titan details found in the criminal complaint.
- 5,000 Apple employees have been disclosed on Project Titan.
- 2,700 Apple employees have access to Project Titan Databases.
Huge numbers pointing to Titan being much larger than most people assume.
I don't think NYT / Wirecutter understands AirPods.
Exclude its defining feature (no cords), in order to say they are like EarPods?
Huh?
Apple just released earnings:
$84.3B revenue
$4.18 EPS
My estimates were:
$84.3B revenue
$4.18 EPS
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Why did Netflix increase prices just before major competition enters the scene? They have no other choice. Netflix needs more content.
aboveavalon.com/notes/2018/10/
We could have shipped what Apple announced with Vision Pro. We chose not to.
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P.S. For those of you interested in AirPods financials, I recommend this article from November.
"AirPods Are Becoming A Platform"
(My AirPods financial estimates are derived from Apple management commentary.)
aboveavalon.com/notes/2019/11/
The newest addition to the Cybart family has arrived. James Neil Cybart. Both mom and baby are doing well.
I wish more people writing / talking about Apple vs. Epic would focus on what it is that Epic actually wants in all of this = its own app store on iOS so that it can collect its own share of in-app purchases.
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"Some people just like to drive."
Yep.
I hear some people still like to ride horses too.
The Disney model
1) Have families pay ~$50 to see the newest Disney blockbuster in a movie theater.
2) Have families pay ~$10 per month to watch the movie whenever they want in the future.
3) Have families pay a few thousand dollars to visit the movie characters at Disney World.
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2/ The following screenshoot is from the linked article. Not surprisingly, nearly every financial metric found in this screenshot is wrong. The assumptions about AirPods sales mix are wrong too. Notice all those blue links.
Kevin Mayer (who recently became TikTok CEO after losing to Bob Chapek in the Disney CEO race) just resigned from TikTok.
Paraphrasing Mayer: I didn't leave Disney for this dumpster fire.
ft.com/content/c35fc9
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Warren Buffett on Apple: "Nobody buys a farm based on whether they think it's going to rain next year. They buy it because they think it's a good investment over 10 or 20 years."
Apple Watch's average selling price is around $400 (and going higher).
Most Apple Watch owners would have laughed if you told them six years ago that they were going to spend ~$400 on a watch. Instead, most thought watches were on their way out due to smartphones.
iPhone share in U.S. (3 month ending Feb. via comScore)
2011: 25.2%
2012: 30.2%
2013: 38.9%
2014: 41.3%
2015: 41.7%
2016: 43.9%
2017: 44.6%
According to my estimates, approximately 35% of iPhone users in the U.S. now wear an Apple Watch. This is a shockingly high % for a five-year-old product category, and it says a lot about how Apple’s intuition about bringing utility to the wrist was right.
aboveavalon.com/notes/2020/9/3
