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3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
How many deaths would be wholly in excess of the 600,000 or so we experience every year Neil. Genuine question.
Thank you for this. Any view on how many people in the UK have had COVID 19? I've seen estimates from 600,000 to many millions. It would be great to get your sense. Seems like it will take weeks for testing to tell us.
The public health interventions were half baked until three days ago & even now we don’t have a full lock down. Reducing the peak by 50% surely is optimistic & without mitigation your paper predicted UK would need 180,000 ventilators at the peak. So we’ll need 90,000 ventilators.
Do we have the skilled technicians and beds to be able to cope with the need of 180,000 ventilators during the peak? #keepcalmanddontcarryon
So two days of lockdown was enough for you to conclude that there will likely be under 20,000 deaths? When the incubation period of the virus is 2-14 days? Please explain further.
How is this compatible with an age adjusted death rate on the Diamond Princess (essentially 100% exposure) of 1/1000? Thus 60,000 deaths. DP is a real live experiment not a model. Costa Luminosa too.
They implemented social distancing on the Diamond Princess.
How will we know how many people die from it, if we are not testing those who die at home or in care homes? As testing has only been done in hospitals, the "herd immunity" argument has been the Angel of Death.
Or those is lockdown in Wuhan- how do the CCP know the real numbers?
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