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2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
The "flatten the curve" was spreading the same numbers over a longer time frame by mitigation measures. The new assessments show a drop in the overall numbers, by mitigation measures. Which is the more accurate framework?
Mitigation flattened the curve, suppression reduces the R number, resulting in less casespic.twitter.com/gYPAssgjqU
Did you bother to read the actual study?
That's why the UK aren't following the mitigation pathway, rather the suppression pathwaypic.twitter.com/BcoPYBViBa
The answer he is most likely seeing the data from the first antibody tests and realizing the denominator is off by a factor of 100 or more. That is where he is getting 20,000 deaths. Oxford was much more right than him.
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