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1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
If it’s slightly more transmissible then how have 2 days of lockdown been enough for you to change your prediction with such a high incubation period? If it’s more transmissible doesn’t that mean there’s more cases, more asymptomatic cases, thus a lower death rate?
it's a model. it assumes social distancing will continue
Could I ask politely, how you modelled "super-spreading events"? I imagine these are almost impossible to predict? Also the doubling rate in most countries seems to be around 2.5 days (before social distancing measures kick in) but I believe your report estimated it at 4 days?
This is a preprint of "Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center". They had a close look at contaminated objects and airborne transmission. What they found supported the use of airborne isolation precautions. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v1.full.pdf …
Could the aerosolization in the administration of drugs and oxygen used in critical units be related?
Hi Neil Is it possible to obtain or read the code or pseudo code for the model? Best wishes R
Your data is wrong.
Then let’s see your data models.
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