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neil_ferguson's profile
neil_ferguson
neil_ferguson
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson

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neil_ferguson

@neil_ferguson

Infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist. Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

London, England
Joined March 2008

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    1. neil_ferguson‏ @neil_ferguson Feb 10

      neil_ferguson Retweeted MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

      Key message: case fatality depends on which cases you look at. High in the relatively severe subset reported in Hubei. Lower in (mostly milder)traveller cases, 1% (.25-4) in all infectionshttps://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1226765905306234881 …

      neil_ferguson added,

      MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @MRC_Outbreak
      UPDATE: #coronavirus #2019nCoV Severity ➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% ➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% ➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% 🔰https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ … pic.twitter.com/djcqWExR6N
      Show this thread
      24 replies . 179 retweets 293 likes
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      neil_ferguson‏ @neil_ferguson Feb 10

      Estimates critically depend on the distributions of the time delays from symptom onset to death or recovery. Limited data on both so far - so high uncertainty in CFR - but our estimates are similar to what was seen for SARS in 2003

      12:05 am - 10 Feb 2020
      • 36 Retweets
      • 84 Likes
      • zanadurin Joël Mossong Harrison Holcomb Albert Pine #LordPaps Giuseppe Gargiulo VASCO SOARES PARENTE Jenn Klee Umran Mark in Dallas
      8 replies . 36 retweets 84 likes
        1. neil_ferguson‏ @neil_ferguson Feb 10

          Our CFR estimates place 2019-nCoV in the same range as the flu pandemics of the 20th century. Which pandemic (1918, 57 or 68) is currently unclear. And whether the global impact is comparable depends on what proportion of people are eventually infected.

          14 replies . 70 retweets 137 likes
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        1. neil_ferguson‏ @neil_ferguson Feb 10

          Last, data from China suggest that while all ages can be infected (risk of being a case fairly constant across adult ages), the severity of infection and risk of death increases sharply in the elderly (>70) and those with pre-existing health conditions

          19 replies . 70 retweets 151 likes
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        1. CoronaVirusDE (L,S,3)  🇩🇪 🇦🇹 🇨🇭‏ @SARSCOV2DE Feb 10
          Replying to @neil_ferguson

          Had SARS also 0-24 ! days incubation time?https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 …

          0 replies . 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Totally tankers tmoney‏ @TankersTmoney Feb 10
          Replying to @neil_ferguson

          So nothing much to worry about?

          0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Incendar Gaming‏ @IncendarGaming Feb 10
          Replying to @neil_ferguson

          Great work Neil! I think I choose the wrong field

          0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. e=mc2‏ @geopolish Feb 10
          Replying to @neil_ferguson

          @avatorl

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        7. New conversation
        1. Magda Romanska‏ @MagdaRomanska Feb 14
          Replying to @neil_ferguson

          1/2 The one possible (a bit crazy but not implausible) reason why it does not yet spread as well outside of Hubei and Wuhan is the level of chemical air contamination in Wuhan which might have lowered the immunity of the population.

          1 reply . 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Magda Romanska‏ @MagdaRomanska Feb 14
          Replying to @MagdaRomanska @neil_ferguson

          2/2 The residents were protesting against the pollution number of times in the past and there is also some research on it: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep40482 … http://www.cnn.com/2019/07/10/asia/china-wuhan-pollution-problems-intl-hnk/index.html ….

          0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation
        8. New conversation
        1. Jay Rodgers‏ @headmelted Feb 10
          Replying to @neil_ferguson

          Neil - hoping you can clarify a data point here. SARS CFR in the end was 9.6%. Past flu epidemics significantly lower. You say here that estimates are similar to both - not attempting to disagree, just understand your findings.

          1 reply . 0 retweets 4 likes
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