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• Estimated peak stress on hospital bed capacity is mid-to-late-May. • IF social distancing policies are lifted after April, there's 50+ % chance hospitals won't be able to handle demand from COVID-19 (as soon as Memorial Day).
• BUT keeping social distancing policies in place after April significantly reduces demand on hospital beds • Models show: - If NO social distancing after April = 750K in NC have COVID-19 by June 1 - If we KEEP social distancing in place = 250K in NC have COVID-19 by June 1
• @NC_Governor said modeling shows we will save lives if we #StayHome
and keep our social distance right now. More: https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/NC-Covid-Brief-1-4-6-20.pdf …. #COVID19NC
IHME model shows peak hospital resource usage on April 13. In your view is their model unreasonably optimistic?
What happened to peak in late April?
We should be glad the peak keeps getting pushed out. That’s the point of social distancing, and means that it’s working. I wish people would understand that. Pushing the peak out is flattening the curve, as it’s spreading the number of cases along a longer time period.
Bullsh!t
Under a best case scenario, North Carolina will have twice as many cases as Italy in the next 30 days? That’s best case with full social distancing?
Cooper has been pressed to provide the data used to arrive at some of his decisions and for the past 3.5 weeks, he's said he "hopes to share that soon". I read that in NC they are using a "weather forecast" approach and "likelihood percentages" to come up with their numbers 
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