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ncasenmare's profile
Nicky Case (rarely uses this site)
Nicky Case (rarely uses this site)
Nicky Case (rarely uses this site)
@ncasenmare

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Nicky Case (rarely uses this site)

@ncasenmare

( I ALMOST NEVER USE TWITTER ANYMORE ) ( Follow my newsletter, linked to on my site! ) 👉 http://ncase.me  👈

ncase.me
Joined May 2009

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    Nicky Case (rarely uses this site)‏ @ncasenmare 5 May 2020

    We're all burnt out on this lockdown... so how do we get out of it, *safely*? Protect lives AND liberty? NEW INTERACTIVE! From epidemiologist @MarcelSalathe & me, a deep-dive explanation of an "exit plan", with backup plans: 😷 https://ncase.me/covid-19/?v=2  🔬 30 min play/readpic.twitter.com/hxO0E1vaHT

    8:07 AM - 5 May 2020
    • 391 Retweets
    • 729 Likes
    • Roland Tanglao 猪肉面 ☁️Poe Jakensik Szkraft220 (DELTARUNE ch2 SPOILERS DEFINATELY) Risako stressed out raven Shreya 정고 (계정이동중) Frank🦁F
    15 replies 391 retweets 729 likes
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Nathan Young  🔍 (9/100 forecasting questions)‏ @NathanpmYoung 5 May 2020
        Replying to @ncasenmare

        Reshare as often as you want!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. pastell‏ @pastellexists 5 May 2020
        Replying to @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        Thank you for making this, it's easily the best explanation of all this I've read. But this statement doesn't seem true to me. The US is already opening up, state by state, without any of the measures we need. We've wasted our first "reset" and we'll need another.pic.twitter.com/Z9kBQaH6kY

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. pastell‏ @pastellexists 5 May 2020
        Replying to @pastellexists @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        And I can't bare the thought of having to do this again.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Heidi Dixon‏ @wildthinksLab 5 May 2020
        Replying to @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        This is brilliant. Thank you. Now if only we could get everyone to go through this explorable explanation. Will pass it on to as many people as I can.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Jonathan Toomim‏ @jtoomim 5 May 2020
        Replying to @ncasenmare @jeremyphoward @marcelsalathe

        Your R0=2.2 number is based off a single study. Much better to use a meta-analysis's results. This meta-analysis says R0 = 3.3. https://www.jpmph.org/journal/view.php?doi=10.3961/jpmph.20.076 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. PsychoGoldfish‏ @Psycho_Goldfish 5 May 2020
        Replying to @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        This is fantastic. There should be a campaign (in the vein of "flatten the curve") to promote R<1. I would love to see R as a media metric on par with weather. R=1.03? Might be a good day to stay home still for anyone who can. R=0.4, I suppose I'll go catch a movie!

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. adifferentdrumr‏ @adifferentdrumr 8 May 2020
        Replying to @Psycho_Goldfish @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        Sadly, we can only know the weather from around two weeks ago because of incubation period

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Jonathan Toomim‏ @jtoomim 5 May 2020
        Replying to @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        Your claim that masks are ineffective at protecting the wearer is incorrect. You are citing a study that measured fit factors between 2.5 and 9.6. The OSHA requirement is 100. A fit factor of 2.5 means you're only blocking 1 - 1/2.5 = 60% of the particles coming at you.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Jonathan Toomim‏ @jtoomim 5 May 2020
        Replying to @jtoomim @ncasenmare @marcelsalathe

        A fit factor of 9.6 means you're only blocking 89.6% of the particles. That's not medical-grade protection, but it's perfectly acceptable for a civilian.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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