of course Nov is a long way away, and who knows, but...
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I don’t think he can. Or he will. I think that’s why the panic has set in for him. It’s like the Nazis in 1944. Burn it all down because they know the end is near.
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That was supposed to be an optimistic comment
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Not releasing his tax returns, getting blocked from being on the ballot in CA, and then claiming that the state's electoral votes therefore don't count and having it rubberstamped by the GOP SCOTUS.
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If it’s more like 4-5 it’s *possible* that he could still baaaaarely win Wisconsin and keep the rest of his 2016 map with enough GOP voter suppression (and they’ll definitely try) and still win the electoral college, probably with an even wider popular vote loss than in 2016
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I really don't see an EC victory path at all. 2016 was kind of a weird fluke.
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The fascinating question is what kind of general election lead would Biden need before you think it means that Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania are likely "safe." 6 points? 7? 8? It seems hard to believe that an 8 point national lead wouldn't also mean wins in those three states.
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Although the polls look good for Biden now, I wouldn’t get too excited until October. The polls usually tighten when people know they’re going to have to vote.
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Increasingly convinced Trump is going to get crushed in November, which is good, but I’m also pretty sure Republicans will say winning during a pandemic doesn’t really convey democratic legitimacy.
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