You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
COVID19 isn't the flu. But for under-45, COVID hospitalizes 1% & kills .014%. All ages, flu hospitalizes 1.5% & kills 0.13%. Restricting COVID to under-45s results in 6x flu hospitalizations & 1x flu deaths, & gets us to herd immunity. Shelter the old, but release the young!
Sources: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2020/ … https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html … https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1250479538267545605?s=20 … https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1250448510383796225?s=20 … https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm …
Assumptions: Herd immunity for R0=2.5 is 60% 58% of US population is < 44 Flu infects ~10% of US pop annually 20-44 hospitalization rate = 14.3%–20.8%; <20 = 1.6%–2.5% (CDC) 20-44 fatality rate = 0.1%-0.2%; <20 = 0% (CDC) Missing 1/4-1/2 deaths, 9/10 cases (NS)
This does not mean you are just as likely to die of the flu as you are of COVID19. It means a young person is 7x more likely to be hospitalized by COVID19 as a mostly older person would from the flu, and as likely to die overall, as a mostly older person would be of the flu.
Caveats: Not an epidemiologist Model is as simple as possible, but no simpler Of course: • The hard part is separating those > 44! • some <45 have co-morbidities • many >44 are healthy & strong Better therapeutics can lower CFR Need to flatten curve for hospital beds
Substantive comments and critiques welcomed. Outraged and unconstructive people, including "stay in your lane" comments will be mercilessly blocked.
I appreciate your input on the discussion, but if one claims to be a “philosopher” and “free thinker” it might be counterintuitive to your image to hide every single opposing opinion.
I don't hide opposing opinions. Just people who get outraged, curse, straw man, or have very bad reading comprehension. Frankly, I should expand the hide / block lists.
Shelter the old release the young has a particularly modernistic and nihilistic disintegration of the family type flavor. Something seems not only wrong but impossible in this idea of "horizontal partitioning" of society.
But it’s temporary. If naval’s solution got us to herd immunity in 2 months, totally worth it so I can see my grandparents again rather than waiting 18 months for a vaccine. Right?
Are you assuming the young and the old do not live together in this analysis?
Yes @naval this is the key question - would be great if you addressed it
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
