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It's not the only thing we are going to write about in the crypto realm, but it certainly seems worthy of coverage.
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These #'s start to provide a picture of why we write about this. It is not just because the black market stuff is sensational. It is also one of the most steadily growing and interesting experiments in how BTC can be used in the real world.
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(The dollar also enabled lots of other kinds of transactions, like foreign trade, capital markets activity and lending that have no analogue in the Bitcoin world and that probably make many people more willing to tolerate the illegal transactions.)
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The dollar, meanwhile, enabled around $100 trillion in legal payments last year (acc. to the Fed), so total global drug sales would only account for around .5% of all dollar payments.
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Some of the rest is legitimate payments — $1.7 billion last year, acc. to Chainalysis. But when you add that to the $748 billion in drug transactions, drugs could be said to be responsible for 31% of all Bitcoin payments.
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Among all non-trading and mining uses, illicit activity accounts for 26 percent of all blockchain transactions. When you throw in gambling and mixing, the figure goes up to 41%. (This also leaves out illicit activity that Chainalysis can't spot, like tax evasion.)
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You can see that in this chart that Chainalysis put together, showing how blockchain traffic breaks down.pic.twitter.com/JdgdGQ6vK7
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When you take out the 92% of Bitcoin activity related to simply buying and selling Bitcoin (and mining), illegal activity becomes a much bigger part of the remaining real world use cases — and one of the few that truly relies on Bitcoin’s unique qualities.
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But recent data from
@lawmaster suggest that both p2p markets and consumer exchanges have also seen shrinking volume in recent months.https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1221369350990462976 …
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Some of the people buying and selling Bitcoin are doing so not to speculate, but to escape repressive local regimes or invest in a new digital gold. We and other news organizations have written a lot about that possibility.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/technology/bitcoin-payments-gold.html …
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That has actually captured most of the news coverage to date. But for most ordinary people, there is only going to be so much interest in a new form of financial speculation, especially when, as has been true over the last six months, it has been shrinking.pic.twitter.com/qPM5kXao2d
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Now, what about the focus on Bitcoin’s illegal uses, given how many other Bitcoin transactions there are? Bitcoin has indeed given rise to a new universe of financial assets and trading that is open 24 hours a day and available to anyone.
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When bad activity is growing and allowing new kinds of crimes, that calls for news coverage, even if there are other kinds of pre-existing bad activity that are bigger.
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Many investigators have told me that without Bitcoin, the growth of the fentanyl trade between China and the US would have had a much harder time taking off. Then there are crimes like ransomware that would be essentially impossible without BTC.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/10/business/dealbook/opioid-dark-web-drug-overdose.html …
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Bitcoin and dark net markets are even more worthy of coverage than a fast-growing cartel because they seem to be enabling new kinds of illegal transactions that were impossible or much harder in the old world of cartels.
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In the case of Bitcoin, this new way of purchasing drugs and other illegal goods grew over 60% last year to around $1 billion. That likely makes it as big as some of the most well-known cartels, according to some public estimates on cartels.https://www.cnbc.com/id/29754581
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It’s a bit like saying that we shouldn’t pay attention to a flourishing new drug cartel because it only represents a small amount of all drug trading worldwide.
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Yes, the $ is responsible for most of the roughly $500 billion in annual drug trade and Bitcoin only around ~.5%, acc. to the latest numbers from Chainalysis. But those absolute numbers seem like a strange way to dismiss the significance of Bitcoin-fueled drug transactions.
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The two main critiques I hear: 1. Drug purchases using Bitcoin account for less than 1% of all Bitcoin transactions. 2. The dollar is still the primary currency for drug transactions, why not focus on that?
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Each time we write about Bitcoin and online drug markets we hear from lots of Bitcoin folks who say the topic is not worthy of coverage and is blown out of proportion. It seems worth explaining how I think about this. So a thread.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/technology/bitcoin-black-market.html …
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