Nate Silver已認證帳戶

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
2008年8月加入
1,525 個相片或影片 圖片與影片

推文

你已封鎖 @NateSilver538

你確定要查看這些推文嗎？查看推文並不會將 @NateSilver538 解除封鎖

  1. 50 分鐘前

    Are Jacob Wohl and Michael Avenatti in some kind of dare to see who can be accused of the most crimes?

    NEW: Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman have been trying to recruit young men to falsely claim they were sexually assaulted by Pete Buttigieg. One recorded their convo and gave us the audio. Another says allegations published today in his name are bullshit
    顯示此對話串
    54 replies 302 則轉推 2,139 個喜歡
    還原
  2. 2 小時前

    On this week's podcast, we talked about Bernie vs. Warren, Bernie vs. The Establishment, and Peto Buttichar.

    Biden is in. But most of the Democratic establishment is still on the sidelines.
    13 replies 5 則轉推 70 個喜歡
    還原
  3. 2 小時前

    Also, while lots of ventures shift focus pre-launch, you'd think being crowdfunded would lead to more vigorous efforts to follow through on the spirit of your mission as reasonably understood by donors/members (not to mention by employees and "ambassadors").

    5 replies 3 則轉推 37 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  4. 3 小時前

    Yeah, what's frustrating IMO is that they're litigating the narrow question of physical office space in NYC (which I agree isn't so important) to claim they haven't changed plans. But shifting from a *new US-focused publication* to an *English-language expansion* is a big change.

    And to be clear we were not discussing a physical office space so much as US-based reporting with the first hires being likely based in NY, with a holes for expansion thereafter. The US-based talent and voice was key for me, even if home-base was overseas.
    顯示此對話串
    7 replies 6 則轉推 69 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  5. 5 小時前

    Also, these policy views are fairly squarely within the Democratic mainstream (while also happening to be reasonably popular with general election voters). He's not exactly running as a centrist.

    Some policy ideas in Biden's first speech---$15 minimum wage, getting rid of Trump tax cuts, allowing anyone to buy into Medicare, free community college.
    35 replies 50 則轉推 307 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  6. 已轉推
    5 小時前

    Mentions of 2020 candidates on cable news last week. 📺📊📈📉📊 Biden got more than twice as much coverage on CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC on Thursday than Sanders did the day he announced his candidacy back in February. from

    22 replies 25 則轉推 94 個喜歡
    還原
  7. 5 小時前

    Also helps Biden that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is. A lot of the candidates' elevator pitches are mishmashes of biography, values & policy. It's hard to cram in all 3. If you can dispense with the bio, you can focus more effectively on the other 2.

    43 replies 42 則轉推 405 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  8. 6 小時前

    This is why I don't get the Takes that are like "Biden doesn't have a message that will resonate with today's Democrats." This stuff isn't trendy but I'd guess it ought to have fairly broad, meat-and-potatoes appeal, especially with older Democrats.

    173 replies 131 則轉推 739 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  9. 6 小時前

    If you're willing to say "trying to impeach president Trump will materially increase his chances of re-election, but Democrats should do it anyway because it's the right thing to do!", more power to you! That's a much more grounded & honest argument than some of what I'm seeing.

    The counterpoint is that leadership sometimes involves doing unpopular things.
    205 replies 97 則轉推 806 個喜歡
    還原
  10. 6 小時前

    People are welcome to engage in as much special pleading or 13-dimensional-chess-thinking as they want. But empirically, it's rare that when Party X takes an action that polls as being highly unpopular, it turns out well for them politically in the near-to-medium term.

    164 replies 44 則轉推 439 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  11. 6 小時前

    There's a llllllllooooooottt of not-terribly-persuasive attempts by some Democrats to rationalize away the fact that launching impeachment proceedings against Trump is a really unpopular move.

    308 replies 90 則轉推 671 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  12. 8 小時前

    Maybe my impression is/was wrong. But their first/only US-based hire () had same impression. FWIW, I also communicated this to them privately a few weeks ago. I hope they'll find a better way to address people's concerns rather than just calling it a misunderstanding.

    9 replies 8 則轉推 81 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  13. 8 小時前

    FWIW, I had the same impression as : that they were "coming to the US". That can mean a lot of things; I don't care about a physical office. But an English-language expansion run from abroad with just 1-2 US correspondents isn't what I thought I was getting behind.

    4 replies 10 則轉推 88 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  14. 8 小時前

    As someone who was an "ambassador" for The Correspondent—not a paid position, just someone who likes the ideas/people behind the publication and so helped to promote its crowdfunding campaign—I think you should read this.

    9 replies 33 則轉推 132 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  15. 已轉推
    16 小時前

    Who takes a hit now that Biden’s in the race?

    16 replies 7 則轉推 65 個喜歡
    還原
  16. 4月29日

    It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.

    Opinion: The 2020 election isn’t going to be close
    346 replies 613 則轉推 3,764 個喜歡
    還原
  17. 4月28日

    So basically you treat it like a loose ball foul on the rebound attempt... offensive team gets the ball back but only shoots free throws if it's in the penalty. A ref still could call a traditional shooting foul, but this would be another option for more incidental contact.

    21 replies 4 則轉推 105 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  18. 4月28日

    Not sure I agree it evened out for Harden today... but I do think it's tricky for refs and maybe they need the option to call a non-shooting foul in cases where there's illegal contact after the shot that didn't greatly affect the shooter's release.

    Harden probably got 3-4 calls in the second half that were very questionable, including one where he grabbed Looney's arm and flopped. It really does even out, he's extremely hard to ref.
    21 replies 5 則轉推 122 個喜歡
    顯示此對話串
    顯示此對話串
    還原
  19. 4月28日

    Would be sort of hilarious if right when all the political pundits think populism is on the upswing, 2019/2020 instead proves to be the revival of center-left neo-liberalism.

    Center-left soared [that's something we haven't seen in recent years, have we?!] in Spain's elections today, & will likely govern. Question now is whether left parties on their own can form a majority coalition—& whether the PSOE looks there rather than to its right.
    顯示此對話串
    1,020 replies 453 則轉推 2,630 個喜歡
    還原
  20. 4月28日

    The least accurate part of the movie was that the dinosaurs only sold at auction for like $4 million.

    3:05
    It may make for good entertainment, but "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom" didn't portray dinosaurs 100% accurately
    27 replies 83 則轉推 979 個喜歡
    還原

@NateSilver538 尚未發表任何推文。

看來要一段時間讀取資料。

Twitter 可能已超出負載，或發生暫時性的小問題。請再試一次，或造訪 Twitter 狀態以取得更多資訊。

    你也可能也會喜歡

    ·