Nate Silver認証済みアカウント

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
2008年8月に登録
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  1. 50 分前

    Are Jacob Wohl and Michael Avenatti in some kind of dare to see who can be accused of the most crimes?

    NEW: Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman have been trying to recruit young men to falsely claim they were sexually assaulted by Pete Buttigieg. One recorded their convo and gave us the audio. Another says allegations published today in his name are bullshit
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  2. 2 時間前

    On this week's podcast, we talked about Bernie vs. Warren, Bernie vs. The Establishment, and Peto Buttichar.

    Biden is in. But most of the Democratic establishment is still on the sidelines.
    13件の返信 5件のリツイート 70 いいね
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  3. 2 時間前

    Also, while lots of ventures shift focus pre-launch, you'd think being crowdfunded would lead to more vigorous efforts to follow through on the spirit of your mission as reasonably understood by donors/members (not to mention by employees and "ambassadors").

    5件の返信 3件のリツイート 37 いいね
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  4. 3 時間前

    Yeah, what's frustrating IMO is that they're litigating the narrow question of physical office space in NYC (which I agree isn't so important) to claim they haven't changed plans. But shifting from a *new US-focused publication* to an *English-language expansion* is a big change.

    And to be clear we were not discussing a physical office space so much as US-based reporting with the first hires being likely based in NY, with a holes for expansion thereafter. The US-based talent and voice was key for me, even if home-base was overseas.
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    7件の返信 6件のリツイート 69 いいね
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  5. 5 時間前

    Also, these policy views are fairly squarely within the Democratic mainstream (while also happening to be reasonably popular with general election voters). He's not exactly running as a centrist.

    Some policy ideas in Biden's first speech---$15 minimum wage, getting rid of Trump tax cuts, allowing anyone to buy into Medicare, free community college.
    35件の返信 50件のリツイート 307 いいね
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  6. さんがリツイート
    5 時間前

    Mentions of 2020 candidates on cable news last week. 📺📊📈📉📊 Biden got more than twice as much coverage on CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC on Thursday than Sanders did the day he announced his candidacy back in February. from

    22件の返信 25件のリツイート 94 いいね
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  7. 5 時間前

    Also helps Biden that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is. A lot of the candidates' elevator pitches are mishmashes of biography, values & policy. It's hard to cram in all 3. If you can dispense with the bio, you can focus more effectively on the other 2.

    43件の返信 42件のリツイート 405 いいね
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  8. 6 時間前

    This is why I don't get the Takes that are like "Biden doesn't have a message that will resonate with today's Democrats." This stuff isn't trendy but I'd guess it ought to have fairly broad, meat-and-potatoes appeal, especially with older Democrats.

    173件の返信 131件のリツイート 739 いいね
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  9. 6 時間前

    If you're willing to say "trying to impeach president Trump will materially increase his chances of re-election, but Democrats should do it anyway because it's the right thing to do!", more power to you! That's a much more grounded & honest argument than some of what I'm seeing.

    The counterpoint is that leadership sometimes involves doing unpopular things.
    205件の返信 97件のリツイート 805 いいね
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  10. 6 時間前

    People are welcome to engage in as much special pleading or 13-dimensional-chess-thinking as they want. But empirically, it's rare that when Party X takes an action that polls as being highly unpopular, it turns out well for them politically in the near-to-medium term.

    163件の返信 44件のリツイート 441 いいね
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  11. 6 時間前

    There's a llllllllooooooottt of not-terribly-persuasive attempts by some Democrats to rationalize away the fact that launching impeachment proceedings against Trump is a really unpopular move.

    308件の返信 90件のリツイート 671 いいね
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  12. 8 時間前

    Maybe my impression is/was wrong. But their first/only US-based hire () had same impression. FWIW, I also communicated this to them privately a few weeks ago. I hope they'll find a better way to address people's concerns rather than just calling it a misunderstanding.

    9件の返信 8件のリツイート 81 いいね
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  13. 8 時間前

    FWIW, I had the same impression as : that they were "coming to the US". That can mean a lot of things; I don't care about a physical office. But an English-language expansion run from abroad with just 1-2 US correspondents isn't what I thought I was getting behind.

    4件の返信 10件のリツイート 88 いいね
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  14. 8 時間前

    As someone who was an "ambassador" for The Correspondent—not a paid position, just someone who likes the ideas/people behind the publication and so helped to promote its crowdfunding campaign—I think you should read this.

    9件の返信 33件のリツイート 132 いいね
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  15. さんがリツイート
    16 時間前

    Who takes a hit now that Biden’s in the race?

    16件の返信 7件のリツイート 65 いいね
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  16. 4月29日

    It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.

    Opinion: The 2020 election isn’t going to be close
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  17. 4月28日

    So basically you treat it like a loose ball foul on the rebound attempt... offensive team gets the ball back but only shoots free throws if it's in the penalty. A ref still could call a traditional shooting foul, but this would be another option for more incidental contact.

    21件の返信 4件のリツイート 105 いいね
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  18. 4月28日

    Not sure I agree it evened out for Harden today... but I do think it's tricky for refs and maybe they need the option to call a non-shooting foul in cases where there's illegal contact after the shot that didn't greatly affect the shooter's release.

    Harden probably got 3-4 calls in the second half that were very questionable, including one where he grabbed Looney's arm and flopped. It really does even out, he's extremely hard to ref.
    21件の返信 5件のリツイート 122 いいね
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  19. 4月28日

    Would be sort of hilarious if right when all the political pundits think populism is on the upswing, 2019/2020 instead proves to be the revival of center-left neo-liberalism.

    Center-left soared [that's something we haven't seen in recent years, have we?!] in Spain's elections today, & will likely govern. Question now is whether left parties on their own can form a majority coalition—& whether the PSOE looks there rather than to its right.
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    1,020件の返信 453件のリツイート 2,630 いいね
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  20. 4月28日

    The least accurate part of the movie was that the dinosaurs only sold at auction for like $4 million.

    3:05
    It may make for good entertainment, but "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom" didn't portray dinosaurs 100% accurately
    27件の返信 83件のリツイート 979 いいね
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