Nate Silverसत्यापित खाता

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
अगस्त 2008 पर शामिल हुए
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आपने @NateSilver538 को अवरुद्ध किया है

क्या आप वाकई इन ट्वीट को देखना चाहते हैं? ट्वीट देखने से @NateSilver538 का अवरोध नहीं हटेगा

  1. 50 मिनट पहले

    Are Jacob Wohl and Michael Avenatti in some kind of dare to see who can be accused of the most crimes?

    NEW: Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman have been trying to recruit young men to falsely claim they were sexually assaulted by Pete Buttigieg. One recorded their convo and gave us the audio. Another says allegations published today in his name are bullshit
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  2. 2 घंटे पहले

    On this week's podcast, we talked about Bernie vs. Warren, Bernie vs. The Establishment, and Peto Buttichar.

    Biden is in. But most of the Democratic establishment is still on the sidelines.
    13 उत्तर 5 रीट्वीट 70 पसंद
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  3. 2 घंटे पहले

    Also, while lots of ventures shift focus pre-launch, you'd think being crowdfunded would lead to more vigorous efforts to follow through on the spirit of your mission as reasonably understood by donors/members (not to mention by employees and "ambassadors").

    5 उत्तर 3 रीट्वीट 37 पसंद
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  4. 3 घंटे पहले

    Yeah, what's frustrating IMO is that they're litigating the narrow question of physical office space in NYC (which I agree isn't so important) to claim they haven't changed plans. But shifting from a *new US-focused publication* to an *English-language expansion* is a big change.

    And to be clear we were not discussing a physical office space so much as US-based reporting with the first hires being likely based in NY, with a holes for expansion thereafter. The US-based talent and voice was key for me, even if home-base was overseas.
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  5. 5 घंटे पहले

    Also, these policy views are fairly squarely within the Democratic mainstream (while also happening to be reasonably popular with general election voters). He's not exactly running as a centrist.

    Some policy ideas in Biden's first speech---$15 minimum wage, getting rid of Trump tax cuts, allowing anyone to buy into Medicare, free community college.
    35 उत्तर 50 रीट्वीट 307 पसंद
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  6. ने रीट्वीट किया
    5 घंटे पहले

    Mentions of 2020 candidates on cable news last week. 📺📊📈📉📊 Biden got more than twice as much coverage on CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC on Thursday than Sanders did the day he announced his candidacy back in February. from

    22 उत्तर 25 रीट्वीट 94 पसंद
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  7. 5 घंटे पहले

    Also helps Biden that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is. A lot of the candidates' elevator pitches are mishmashes of biography, values & policy. It's hard to cram in all 3. If you can dispense with the bio, you can focus more effectively on the other 2.

    43 उत्तर 42 रीट्वीट 405 पसंद
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  8. 6 घंटे पहले

    This is why I don't get the Takes that are like "Biden doesn't have a message that will resonate with today's Democrats." This stuff isn't trendy but I'd guess it ought to have fairly broad, meat-and-potatoes appeal, especially with older Democrats.

    173 उत्तर 131 रीट्वीट 739 पसंद
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  9. 6 घंटे पहले

    If you're willing to say "trying to impeach president Trump will materially increase his chances of re-election, but Democrats should do it anyway because it's the right thing to do!", more power to you! That's a much more grounded & honest argument than some of what I'm seeing.

    The counterpoint is that leadership sometimes involves doing unpopular things.
    205 उत्तर 97 रीट्वीट 805 पसंद
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  10. 6 घंटे पहले

    People are welcome to engage in as much special pleading or 13-dimensional-chess-thinking as they want. But empirically, it's rare that when Party X takes an action that polls as being highly unpopular, it turns out well for them politically in the near-to-medium term.

    164 उत्तर 44 रीट्वीट 439 पसंद
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  11. 6 घंटे पहले

    There's a llllllllooooooottt of not-terribly-persuasive attempts by some Democrats to rationalize away the fact that launching impeachment proceedings against Trump is a really unpopular move.

    308 उत्तर 90 रीट्वीट 671 पसंद
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  12. 8 घंटे पहले

    Maybe my impression is/was wrong. But their first/only US-based hire () had same impression. FWIW, I also communicated this to them privately a few weeks ago. I hope they'll find a better way to address people's concerns rather than just calling it a misunderstanding.

    9 उत्तर 8 रीट्वीट 81 पसंद
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  13. 8 घंटे पहले

    FWIW, I had the same impression as : that they were "coming to the US". That can mean a lot of things; I don't care about a physical office. But an English-language expansion run from abroad with just 1-2 US correspondents isn't what I thought I was getting behind.

    4 उत्तर 10 रीट्वीट 88 पसंद
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  14. 8 घंटे पहले

    As someone who was an "ambassador" for The Correspondent—not a paid position, just someone who likes the ideas/people behind the publication and so helped to promote its crowdfunding campaign—I think you should read this.

    9 उत्तर 33 रीट्वीट 132 पसंद
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  15. ने रीट्वीट किया
    16 घंटे पहले

    Who takes a hit now that Biden’s in the race?

    16 उत्तर 7 रीट्वीट 65 पसंद
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  16. 29 अप्रैल

    It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.

    Opinion: The 2020 election isn’t going to be close
    346 उत्तर 613 रीट्वीट 3,764 पसंद
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  17. 28 अप्रैल

    So basically you treat it like a loose ball foul on the rebound attempt... offensive team gets the ball back but only shoots free throws if it's in the penalty. A ref still could call a traditional shooting foul, but this would be another option for more incidental contact.

    21 उत्तर 4 रीट्वीट 105 पसंद
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  18. 28 अप्रैल

    Not sure I agree it evened out for Harden today... but I do think it's tricky for refs and maybe they need the option to call a non-shooting foul in cases where there's illegal contact after the shot that didn't greatly affect the shooter's release.

    Harden probably got 3-4 calls in the second half that were very questionable, including one where he grabbed Looney's arm and flopped. It really does even out, he's extremely hard to ref.
    21 उत्तर 5 रीट्वीट 122 पसंद
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  19. 28 अप्रैल

    Would be sort of hilarious if right when all the political pundits think populism is on the upswing, 2019/2020 instead proves to be the revival of center-left neo-liberalism.

    Center-left soared [that's something we haven't seen in recent years, have we?!] in Spain's elections today, & will likely govern. Question now is whether left parties on their own can form a majority coalition—& whether the PSOE looks there rather than to its right.
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  20. 28 अप्रैल

    The least accurate part of the movie was that the dinosaurs only sold at auction for like $4 million.

    3:05
    It may make for good entertainment, but "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom" didn't portray dinosaurs 100% accurately
    27 उत्तर 83 रीट्वीट 979 पसंद
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