Is this being skewed by a heavily left leaning CA?
Special elections so far are consistent with an environment that leans Democratic by 14 points (that's a *lot* -- more than 2006 or 2008).pic.twitter.com/e8PNVe0RlB
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Even if you ignore CA the average swing it D + 13.7
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How many of those were because a republican was unceremoniously removed from office?
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None, all were the result of trump appointments (except CA, which was a Dem state appointment)
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And this is in a *good* economy.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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district map is also tougher than 2006 though. Any figures on what the dems' district handicap is for 2018 compared to 2006?
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I mean, if the median district is 5% more republican and democrats outperform by 14%, that's basically a 9% net difference
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That's for Congressional specials. For state legislative specials so far, it's been a Democrat +11 environment. http://bit.ly/2roWLIr
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Why the 3 point difference??
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Are special elections good predictors of generals in the next cycle, historically?
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In NY, at least, they are to a degree:pic.twitter.com/zQwXpCzxmz
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