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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016

      Well, it's been 3 days. So, probably time to point this out:http://53eig.ht/2fkn7oi 

      273 replies 516 retweets 1,078 likes
    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      Not only did 538's model give Trump a much better chance than the consensus, it did so for the right reasons…

      68 replies 97 retweets 288 likes
    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      It recognized that: 1) polling errors are correlated 2) there were many undecideds 3) Clinton's Electoral College position was weak

      54 replies 109 retweets 382 likes
    4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      Late-deciding voters went strongly for Trump, especially in the Midwest. That's why more undecideds means more uncertainty.pic.twitter.com/0YugT2HzO0

      100 replies 309 retweets 395 likes
    5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      There wasn't even a particularly large polling error on Tuesday. Just a normal-sized one. Although lots of weirdness in the states...

      35 replies 60 retweets 175 likes
    6. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      Clinton actually beat her polls in a lot of blue and western states, but she got crushed in the middle part of the country.pic.twitter.com/lTH7bzdMBz

      33 replies 171 retweets 206 likes
    7. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      And when a Democrat underperforms in the Midwest, that's death to their Electoral College chances.pic.twitter.com/J8DyofqJGG

      33 replies 187 retweets 252 likes
      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016

      All of this was *somewhat* foreseeable, though. Hence, Trump having a ~30% chance. Here's what we said in our final write-up.pic.twitter.com/uikQWlpXCV

      1:20 PM - 11 Nov 2016
      • 111 Retweets
      • 304 Likes
      • James Thornton democracy or bust Tristan More Justin Label 🏵 Joanne 🏵 yr peds pal 🐋 Marcelo Crespo U Dekel X_inParis
      65 replies 111 retweets 304 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Vinayak‏ @I_Am_VinayakB 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Dude, give it up. You don't know what you're doing. Leave this now.

          2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
        3. Sunny  💛 I just love me some Stacey Abrams  💛‏ @sunny05pt05 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @I_Am_VinayakB @NateSilver538

          Actually, 538 did write of these things & poss. of pop/EC vote split before election; others criticized then.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        4. Show replies
        1.  🌪 💜 Clare #StayHome #GoJoe Harris (fan)‏ @ClareWHarris 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          stop, please.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Anyway, there was a lot of complacency about Trump that WASN'T justified by the polls. We learned that lesson the hard way in the primary.

          70 replies 89 retweets 307 likes
        3. eric kovar‏ @ekovar 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          obviously, didn't learn it well enough...

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Kevin "~/Downloads" Cantwell‏ @kevrone 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Don't mind the haters. Correct math is not intuitive and will always be criticized.

          0 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
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        1. Diets Tweets‏ @dschnaepp 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          pointed that out to a lot of people in RL: If you pick up a dice. You should expect to roll maybe a 1 or maybe a 2

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Elsie Dodomeir‏ @elsasdodo 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          give it up. you hemmed and hawed all season, never put it out there, got so little right. i can guess as well as your "team".

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. The Politik‏ @realThe_Politik 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Nate thinks the Popular Vote drives the electoral college. But the electoral college drives the popular vote

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Caity‏ @CaityFC 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          because I was reading carefully, I left the party that I was at about 8:30ish. Had that sinking feeling. Wanted to be alone.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Caity‏ @CaityFC 11 Nov 2016
          Replying to @CaityFC @NateSilver538

          I was grateful to have been warned...also did more vol work in the last weeks so at least I feel like I tried.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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