Trump chances:
538 polls-plus—25%
Betfair—21%
538 polls-only—17%
NYT/Upshot—12%
Daily Kos Elections—11%
Princeton Election Consortium—4%
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So it looks like 538's models account for more uncertainty than other models, although we're more in line with betting markets.
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Trump odds (8/30):
538 polls-plus—26%
Daily Kos Elections—26%
Betfair—23%
538 polls-only—21%
NYT/Upshot—12%
Princeton Election Consortium—5%
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What causes differences between the models? Basically 3 things (corrected slide):
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worth remembering that some of those people gave Trump a 2% chance at the nomination
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