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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 10 Oct 2019

      8 organizations have published national polls since the Ukraine/impeachment story blew up. On average, Biden *gained* 0.6 points from the pre-Ukraine versions of the same poll. Not *much* of a gain, obviously, but the narrative that his numbers are sinking is sort of BS.

      36 replies 131 retweets 707 likes
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      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 10 Oct 2019

      Warren gained 4.8 points on average since the pre-Ukraine version of those polls, so she's obviously been doing pretty great! But you can be comparatively bullish on both Biden *and* Warren (and bearish on "the field") which has been my stance for a while now.

      3:25 PM - 10 Oct 2019
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      43 replies 60 retweets 532 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Overton’sRearWindow‏ @JesseAl88390831 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @wasthatholly @NateSilver538

          Bull as in, in a china shop rampaging and bear as in bare that’s how I remember. Since they generally refer to the market good/bad is subjective. I’d like to buy a house so a bear housing market would be very good for me

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. Connor‏ @ConnorJoseph35 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          If other candidates are losing ground, and those losses are going to your biggest competitor, isn’t that essentially “sinking”, relative to your chance of winning the nomination?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Matthew Zipple ✊🏼 ✊🏾 ✊🏿‏ @MatthewZipple 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          I think it's tough to be bullish on Biden when is only getting 11% (0.6/5.4) of the total points that are flowing from the field into the Biden-Warren collective. Even if it's 33-21 and Warren gets 89% of the remaining 46 points, that is a big problem for Biden.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Nicola Ferralis‏ @feranick 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Did pollsters probe the pres. tickets? How about Biden/Warren vs Trump/Pence and other combinations (Warren/Biden, Biden/Sanders, or Biden/Abrahams, etc). Would be probably interesting to see the cross-section of the electoral favorability.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Gabi Baty‏ @gabibaty 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Nate- the thing is that it is all about the momentum. If you are standing still and someone is passing you, that’s (relatively) the same as going backwards.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. (((Asa Zernik)))‏ @AsaZernik 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @gabibaty @NateSilver538

          If you look at actual historical numbers, momentum does not exist. Polls move in a random walk; their rise in one time period does not predict their rise the next week.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. DoNotGoGently‏ @booondm 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Somebody in the field needs to light up one of the debates but it is hard because the field keeps getting in the way.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Steven Tolve‏ @TolveProduction 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Has anyone polled those two heads up?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. bree‏ @Bree24C 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          If warren does win via media bias & dnc rigging like Hilary & actually wins against trump which is unlikely- Im hope she screws over the donor elites & dnc & works with Sanders jaypal etc to implement all the policy’s Americans actually want-

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. bree‏ @Bree24C 10 Oct 2019
          Replying to @Bree24C @NateSilver538

          if warren won I’m planing that we, The People, will be screwed and you, the corporate elite and those working for them, will win but here’s the thing about dishonest people you can never trust they will be on your side-

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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