I don't have particularly strong feelings about the order of the candidates after that, but I suppose I'd go: Tier 3a: Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee Tier 3b: Yang, Hickenlooper, Ryan Tier 4: Everyone else Abrams would be at least Tier 2 if she ran.
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Folks asking why I had Biden in a higher tier than Sanders; the main reason is that Biden's polling is quite a bit better. Empirically, candidates with very high name recognition who poll at ~20% (Bernie) don't do so well. ~30% (Biden) is more formidable.https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1115657573796143105 …
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Why is Harris tier 1 and not tier 2?
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Polls and fundraising are both pretty decent; ability to build diverse coalition with support from different wings of the party; maybe the closest thing to a "Party Decides" candidate; no obvious reason she *can't* win; calendar (with CA voting early) is pretty friendly to her.
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Ridiculous putting Harris above Sanders.
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You think Harris has a higher chance than Bernie of winning the nomination?
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Yes that's why he posted that
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