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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 10 Apr 2019

    FWIW, my current thinking on the tiers in the Democratic primary, in terms of likelihood of winning the nomination. This is very rough, obviously: Tier 1a: Harris, Biden Tier 1b: Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg, Warren Tier 2: Booker, Klobuchar

    3:30 PM - 10 Apr 2019
    • 645 Retweets
    • 3,763 Likes
    • graves 💀 alex curry melvin a. kivinen Jane Papa John Misty rae Kerry Townsend Jacob Sean Everton
    1,297 replies 645 retweets 3,763 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 10 Apr 2019

        I don't have particularly strong feelings about the order of the candidates after that, but I suppose I'd go: Tier 3a: Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee Tier 3b: Yang, Hickenlooper, Ryan Tier 4: Everyone else Abrams would be at least Tier 2 if she ran.

        181 replies 120 retweets 1,151 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Apr 2019

        Nate Silver Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))

        Folks asking why I had Biden in a higher tier than Sanders; the main reason is that Biden's polling is quite a bit better. Empirically, candidates with very high name recognition who poll at ~20% (Bernie) don't do so well. ~30% (Biden) is more formidable.https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1115657573796143105 …

        Nate Silver added,

        (((Harry Enten)))Verified account @ForecasterEnten
        Corrected: Name id is highly correlated with polling right now, but I think it's noteworthy a. Biden/Sanders have same name id, but Biden is 10 pts up. b. Warren has *higher* name id than Harris/O'Rourke & yet is behind them. c. Booker/Gillibrand meh. d. Buttigieg over-performing pic.twitter.com/GO0zIzwDzd
        65 replies 72 retweets 366 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ezra Klein‏Verified account @ezraklein 11 Apr 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Why is Harris tier 1 and not tier 2?

        39 replies 4 retweets 140 likes
      3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 11 Apr 2019
        Replying to @ezraklein

        Polls and fundraising are both pretty decent; ability to build diverse coalition with support from different wings of the party; maybe the closest thing to a "Party Decides" candidate; no obvious reason she *can't* win; calendar (with CA voting early) is pretty friendly to her.

        19 replies 12 retweets 191 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. ThrowAway‏ @GenericThroAway 10 Apr 2019
        Replying to @AndyDing13 @NateSilver538

        pic.twitter.com/Zo7WuZmnyI

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Joel for UBI  🌹‏ @grillick 10 Apr 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        Ridiculous putting Harris above Sanders.

        4 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
      3. Joel for UBI  🌹‏ @grillick 11 Apr 2019
        Replying to @grillick @NateSilver538

        Joel for UBI  🌹 Retweeted

        https://twitter.com/CarlBeijer/status/1116131495524098048 …

        Joel for UBI  🌹 added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Fede‏ @ffrey42 10 Apr 2019
        Replying to @NateSilver538

        You think Harris has a higher chance than Bernie of winning the nomination?

        47 replies 8 retweets 490 likes
      3. Brent Savard‏ @brentsavard 10 Apr 2019
        Replying to @ffrey42 @NateSilver538

        Yes that's why he posted that

        13 replies 6 retweets 709 likes
      4. Show replies

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