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NateSilver538's profile
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nate Silver
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@NateSilver538

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Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV ). Sports/politics/food geek.

New York
fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

      Nate Silver Retweeted

      It's far more likely that the Russians were just throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and seeing what stuck and that basing it on Cambridge Analytica data wouldn't have been meaningfully more effective than doing it at random. https://twitter.com/TedGenoways/status/1074800258721476608 …

      Nate Silver added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      229 replies 428 retweets 2,382 likes
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      Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

      If you wrote out a list of the most important factors in the 2016 election, I'm not sure that Russian social media memes would be among the top 100. The scale was quite small and there's not much evidence that they were effective.

      5:08 PM - 17 Dec 2018
      • 1,493 Retweets
      • 4,334 Likes
      • LB Confused Mathmo Renato Seixas ⚡️🤖 SonicTheHegemon Falco Lombardi James Church Aidan Smith ⧖ Aaron J Dinkhouse
      505 replies 1,493 retweets 4,334 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

          For instance, this story makes a big deal about a (post-election) Russian social media disinformation campaign on Bob Mueller based on... 5,000 tweets? That's **nothing**. Platform-wide, there are something like 500,000,000 tweets posted each day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/technology/russian-disinformation-teams-targeted-robert-s-mueller-iii-says-report-prepared-for-senate/2018/12/17/0e0047f6-0230-11e9-8186-4ec26a485713_story.html?utm_term=.c8c3515a6838&__twitter_impression=true …pic.twitter.com/I2XOIf0rdy

          114 replies 408 retweets 1,265 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 17 Dec 2018

          What fraction of overall social media impressions on the 2016 election were generated by Russian troll farms? 0.1%? I'm not sure what the answer is, but suspect it's low, and it says something that none of the reports that hype up the importance of them address that question.

          512 replies 833 retweets 2,632 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. ✭Becca✭‏ @dix_iechick 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @markwmiller07 @NateSilver538

          Same here. I still think people do not grasp how prolific it was. I felt like I was losing my mind watching it happen in real time.

          14 replies 0 retweets 69 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Timothy Burke‏ @swarthmoreburke 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          The scale of the difference between an R and a D vote in key states was quite small. In case you hadn't noticed.

          8 replies 3 retweets 106 likes
        3. Timothy Burke‏ @swarthmoreburke 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @swarthmoreburke @NateSilver538

          As far as effectiveness goes, don't send a statistical thinker to do a humanities and psychology job. This was about meaning and cognition and about how messages pass around in paratexts and affect people. You can't measure it using your usual instruments, so don't try.

          33 replies 13 retweets 179 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Angela‏ @AngelaQueensNY1 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Pfft, interview 10 Republicans and 70-80% of them believe the nonsense and that nonsense was spread mostly by Russian missions on social media. Heck even a lot of Democrats. Comey caused the election loss but the Russian warfare made it close.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Brandon Rittiman‏Verified account @BrandonRittiman 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          But you gotta admit attributing a quote about masturbation to Jesus Christ that advises "we will beat it together" is some next-level comedy. I can't believe the Russians just got that lucky-- someone was meta-trolling. 😂

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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        1. Seren Thomas‏ @SerenThomasTS 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          Bullsh1t. The propaganda was so pervasive, it became a substantial driver of the narratives of the campaign.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Stephanie R Maxwell  🏳️‍🌈 ⚧️‏ @graygoogirl 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538

          In the end, the attempt is what matters.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. aaronshem‏ @aaronshem 17 Dec 2018
          Replying to @graygoogirl @NateSilver538

          aaronshem Retweeted aaronshem

          The attempt was the point, no particular outcome effect likely intended.https://twitter.com/aaronshem/status/1033075416536363009 …

          aaronshem added,

          aaronshem @aaronshem
          Replying to @ChristopherHull @ClimateAudit @KimStrassel
          1) Russia's intent was to create discord and cast doubt on elections. 2) It was meant to be caught. 3) It was designed to give the impression Russia did not want Hillary Clinton as US president. Forget the WWF style narrative of Clinton vs Putin.
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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