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Nate_Cohn's profile
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn
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@Nate_Cohn

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Nate CohnVerified account

@Nate_Cohn

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined January 2012

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    Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

    As a technical matter, I don't really understand the ambiguity here. You program the questionnaire. His name would appear on all the computer screens of your interviewers. It would be fairly clear whether it was missed at one or all call centers?https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/iowa-caucus-02-01#des-moines-register-poll-buttigieg …

    5:50 PM - 1 Feb 2020
    • 106 Retweets
    • 514 Likes
    • Bjorn van Gelder 🌿🐻🍃 BernieHermana 🇺🇸🇧🇸🇭🇳🇰🇳 Trump Is Killing Amerikkkans L2 Data ruby 🎃🌕🍂 Kevin Oliver Alex US sanctions kill kids 🙉🙈🙊 PGR 🌹🌍🌅🌱
    40 replies 106 retweets 514 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        If you look at the data and Pete doesn't show up at all, or he's missing from a whole set of data from a call center, then that's clear enough. But otherwise I don't really get how he would just occasionally not appear

        12 replies 30 retweets 307 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        Then you're left with the possibility that a Pete supporter remembered wrong. Seems possible. Or that an interviewer neglected to read the name, and their eyes skipped ahead accidentally. Also seems possible. But the possibility of measurement error always exists

        17 replies 34 retweets 354 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        Nate Cohn Retweeted

        This strikes me as the real concern and it is harder to check quickly, but even if you did conclude this person was up to no-good you could remove their interviews and reweight https://twitter.com/gm5626/status/1223787563284156419?s=20 …

        Nate Cohn added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        12 replies 49 retweets 280 likes
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      5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        And since this is a poll off the voter file, it would be quick to identify the respondent who leveled the complaint, remove all completes by their interviewer, reweight, and release if you wanted to both be cautious and move quickly

        11 replies 44 retweets 350 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        The amount of conspiracy in my feed right now is just ridiculous.

        42 replies 30 retweets 349 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        I don't even get it. In order to crush Bernie, they accidentally didn't call... Buttigieg? And they held the result of the poll because it might have shown... the same candidate leading who they had leading last time (at a point when no one else did)?

        33 replies 46 retweets 354 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1

        At the same time, I don't get totally axing the poll altogether. I can imagine an argument that the credibility of the poll is compromised at this point, even if the issue can be remedied. But what's been said so far does seem consistent with fairly straightforward remedies

        15 replies 18 retweets 144 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Mark Blumenthal‏Verified account @MysteryPollster Feb 1
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        “Unclear” to Martin <> unclear to Selzer. Sounds like he’s not yet talked to the pollster

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn Feb 1
        Replying to @MysteryPollster

        they canceled the broadcast

        2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Noah Baron‏ @NoahBaron6 Feb 1
        Replying to @Nate_Cohn

        Turns out CNN doesn't like Bernie, shocker!

        2 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
      3. Jordan Price‏ @JRP__1994 Feb 1
        Replying to @NoahBaron6 @Nate_Cohn

        Yes, everything that ever happens in any election is all part of an elaborate ploy to hurt Bernie Sanders, even leaving one of his opponents off a poll.

        9 replies 6 retweets 192 likes
      4. Show replies

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