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Estimates of COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) in Chennai during 2020 based on recorded deaths in the city and on mortality data reported by Rukmini S. IFR estimates range from 0.13% to 0.41%. (1/4) https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1397393378753400838 …pic.twitter.com/yilp3dKhBU
Estimates of prior infection are based on 3 serosurveys. Deaths are taken to be either - official COVID-19 deaths or - excess deaths calculated by two different methods, taking into account mortality trends in the city. Details in this doc. (2/4) http://maths.mdx.ac.uk/research/modelling-the-covid-19-pandemic/chennaiifrestimates/ …
Excess mortality is 65% to 150% higher than recorded COVID-19 deaths (different times, and different methodologies). We can't be sure if this expresses the level of fatality underreporting, since we don't know what fraction of the city's excess deaths were from COVID. (3/4)
There are some interesting trends. IFR appears to decrease over time (opposite to Mumbai and Delhi during 2020). But the % mismatch between recorded COVID deaths and excess deaths grows over time. This could suggest that underreporting increased during 2020. (4/4)
@harlanhappydog @ChrisLefflerMD @debroysumitra
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