I made mistake in my previous tweet. Price increase for Model Y US is $1.5k to $55k. Impact to the model math unchanged when factoring in model mix. Adds 1.5% to June profits and up to 4% Sep. Price increase goes to bottom line.
Follow
Gene Munster
@munster_gene
Managing Partner . Investing in tech-driven growth. All views/opinions are not investment advice.
Gene Munster’s Tweets
Rough impact to the model: Orders in the US that are placed today at the higher price will be delivered last month of the June qtr and add $50m or about 1.5% to earnings. For Sept qtr it should add about 4%.
4
6
145
Show this thread
$TSLA didn’t waste anytime taking advantage of the new higher tax credit price cap.
Today they raised the price of the Model Y Long Range in the US by $1k, from $54k to $55k. I was expecting a $3.5k bump.
59
64
919
Show this thread
Takeaway 2: Rivian R1S and R1T don’t qualify for the full credit today because they only build the quad motor which is above $80k. When they start building the dual motor (start at $78k and $73k) they’ll qualify (if the credit is still around).
4
1
76
Show this thread
Takeaway 1: This gives $TSLA room to raise prices on the Model Y. I expect they'll bump it up by $3.5k given demand is high and one of the motivations of lowering the price of Model Y in January was to get it under $55k to qualify (now starts at $53.5k in the US).
11
3
133
Show this thread
Musical EV tax credits. U.S. Treasury has raised the price cap for electric SUV’s that qualify for the $7.5k tax credit from $55k to $80k.
22
24
324
Show this thread
$AAPL has only missed 3 out of the almost 60 quarters I've followed the company. I'm happy to report, despite the shortfall, the core business is intact. The reason; Apple's customer base remains in love with and loyal to their products.
76
71
752
Show this thread
Even if there is talk of a modest slowdown in March, it does not change the long term strength of the iPhone franchise. While iPhone owners may push back the upgrades, eventually they will upgrade. That reality helps AAPL investors sleep well at night.
1
35
Show this thread
It looks like iPhone Pro supply has caught up to demand, with lead times going to 2 weeks in early Jan and same day today.
2
1
27
Show this thread
At that time they said they “continue to see strong demand” for the models. Much of that demand got pushed to March, with global iPhone Pro lead times in December of 4-5 weeks.
1
1
25
Show this thread
A little more on Apple.
It’s about the iPhone. In November they warned supply was hurting the iPhone Pro line sales, which I estimate is about 40% of iPhone revenue in Dec, or about 20% of overall revenue.
2
1
22
Show this thread
Dare I say he may have picked up some pointers watching how Tim Cook runs Apple.
6
2
66
Show this thread
He's shifting the focus to core products like Reels and Messenger and will give new initiatives like Reality Labs and AI enough capital to grow but not enough to be reckless with profit margins.
Bravo Mark.
3
1
72
Show this thread
It’s worth noting that Zuckerberg is the only founder and CEO of a mega cap tech company ($400B plus ). That role comes with an ego and I give him credit for being teachable and acting on what investors want.
11
5
78
Show this thread
What jumped out to me most was contrasting Zuckerberg’s comments on tonights earnings call vs. last Septembers call.
In September, the final question was essentially tell us why the metaverse is going to be great. Zuckerberg’s response was flat.
2
1
42
Show this thread
$META is up 18% on the earnings because the business is intact. Less worries about the macro and TikTok, and Zuckerberg declaring 2023 is the year of efficiency.
16
15
183
Show this thread
Another key topic for Meta's conference call tonight; What is Meta doing to build AI into its products? Apple, Google and Amazon will get the same question tomorrow night.
3
2
16
Show this thread
$RIVN unfortunately will be letting 6% of its workforce go in an effort to conserve cash. This paves the way for what I believe will be a Rivian price cut to better compete with Tesla and some of the upcoming GM EV models.
18
15
91
The two big questions are the macro for ads and will there be more cuts to spending in 2023?
If Meta would cut all spending on the metaverse, GAAP earnings this year would increase just over 50%.
Either the metaverse is going to work or they will cut spending on it. Win win.
2
27
Show this thread
What did we learn about Meta’s outlook from Snap’s report? Snap did not give guidance, rather an internal forecast for March revenue to be down 2%-10% yy, which makes be believe the down 3% the Street is looking for Meta revenue in March is in the ballpark.
1
1
22
Show this thread
For GAAP earnings Street is looking for: Dec 22 down 40% yy, March down 43%, June down 25%, Sep up 3% and Dec up 15%.
For revenue Street is looking for: Dec 22 down 6% yy, March down 3%, June down 1%, Sep up 6% and Dec up 9%.
2
1
21
Show this thread
$META December results tonight will be ugly. Earnings likely down 40% yy as revenue declines from the macro and spending ramps around metaverse. The good news is the revenue and earnings growth rates will start to improve in the first half of this year.
42
13
134
Show this thread
20
5
159
Show this thread
ChatGPT’s success gives room for big tech to take more reputation risk in getting AI first products to market.
1
1
34
Show this thread
The key long-term topic is what are these companies doing to embrace AI. Before ChatGPT’s November release the topic for investors was academic. Now there will be growing pressure to go beyound weaving AI into existing products and build AI first products.
4
2
35
Show this thread
The key near-term topic is of course a read on the health of the consumer, with all companies likely to talk about some form of a slowdown in March.
1
24
Show this thread
The catch 22 dynamic is in play for Tesla’s competitors. Maintain price and lose mkt share, or cut price and face deeper losses on their EV line up. While Tesla is also taking a hit on margins (going from gm ex credits from about 27% to 20%), they're still well in the black.
20
21
314
Show this thread
The first sign that the rest of US auto makers are feeling the effects of $TSLA’s price cut. $F (Ford) cuts price of Mach-E by 10% today. Less than the flagship 20% cut the Model Y got earlier in the month.
42
48
706
Show this thread
$TSLA is up because the outlook wasn't as bad as people were expecting.
More importantly, they've got the right game plan to get through what will be a tough 2023 for the auto industry.
86
118
1,136
Historically, the only way to cost-effectively heat things up has been to burn something—and emit all kinds of pollutants along the way. No longer. We’ve built the world’s first dedicated manufacturing line for thermophotovoltaic (TPV) cells and demonstrated heat-to-electricity
4
17
59
Show this thread
Our goal in rebranding was to align our brand with our strategy.
19
5
79
Given the size of Google's resources applied to AI over the past 6 years, I expected Google's chatbot will be better (less mistakes and more real time info) than OpenAI's.
12
10
87
Show this thread
Missing from $MSFT news that they have invested in OpenAI are details on terms. Anyones guess if it actually was $10B invested at $29B valuation.
Smart move for OpenAI to close the deal before we see Google's version of ChatGPT which could be out before summer.
5
18
146
Show this thread
Big news. We’re rolling out a new name and a new brand today: Deepwater Asset Management.
10
16
133
What surprised me is after the layoffs, Google will have about 175k employees, up 17% from the end of 2021 headcount.
Not surprising is Google will continue to hire AI roles in part in an effort to respond to OpenAI.
10
7
98
Show this thread
$GOOG is cutting 6% of its workforce is the latest sign things are slowing given its ad business is a bellwether for the economy. It’s also a rare sign of spending discipline from the company.
16
21
294
Show this thread
The question I've gotten the most over the past two weeks is: What does ChatGPT mean for $GOOG?
My answer: Google will respond and be just fine.
14
21
167