In a matched-control study, new variant cases were matched to other variants (by age, sex, local authority, specimen date) on a 1:1 (1,769 cases). Majority were living in private house. Interestingly, B.1.1.7 cases were more likely to be part of a residential cluster. 26/
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To clarify: as presented in this thread, evidence suggests that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible overall, which means more transmission across all age groups. But there is no evidence so far to suggest that it favors certain age groups more than others. 37/https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1341094894757171208?s=20 …
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We are still learning and need to look at this data as accumulating evidence. There are still many unknowns, but worryingly infections associated w/B.1.1.7 & hospitalisations are rapidly increasing, so we urgently need to limit community transmission. 38/https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1308080103407132673?s=20 …
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New update about B.1.1.7 Weekly proportion of cases up to Jan 4 with S-drop out (dark purple) is increasing in all regions and all age groups. Mainly concentrated in London and East of England, but 50% of cases are now the variant in Midlands, South West & North. 39/pic.twitter.com/TvxLwIfmIe
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As of 4 January 2021, a total of 6,008 cases with this variant (VOC/202012-01 or B.1.1.7) have been identified in England, via routine genomic surveillance. Age breakdown of cases demonstrates no particular accumulation in any age group. 40/ https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Zb612Qg797
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Contact tracing data looking at the secondary attack rates from index cases with the new variant (B.1.1.7) vs other variants based on genomic data shows higher attack rates with B.1.1.7 in all regions except East Midlands (which has small number of people with genomic data). 41/pic.twitter.com/rP7ZmwNf9s
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Higher secondary attack rates w/ B.1.1.7 are seen across all age groups, but age-related transmissibility looks similar to old variants; i.e. lower SAR in children than adults. So, there is no evidence that this new variant spreads preferentially more efficiently in children. 42/pic.twitter.com/4DUPmKPvo6
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Similar results are seen based on PCR data with S-drop out. Estimated attack rates are higher in cases with SGTF than cases without SGTF for most regions and age groups, which is proportionate to age related transmissibility. Lower SAR observed in children than adults. 43/pic.twitter.com/rhPgcP9Tfb
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Summary: based on contact tracing data, B.1.1.7 is approx 1.5x transmissible, consistent across different regions. Based on multiple analysis, there is now expert consensus that there is no evidence to suggest it spreads particularly more in children 44/(https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf …\)
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All this still means better safety is needed in schools when open. Right now the appropriate measure is closure until community levels fall. More transmission will mean more children affected severely (even if this is still a rare issue). Is this an accurate understanding?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Just close Imperial please. No point to it.
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Or how about our friends over at PCR claims
@pcrclaims launch a civil suit against imperial, Ferguson and Flaxman for damages their epically bad models (citing John Ionnedes) have caused to lives globally?
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