Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
mugecevik's profile
Muge Cevik
Muge Cevik
Muge Cevik
Verified account
@mugecevik

Tweets

Muge CevikVerified account

@mugecevik

Clinician Scientist • Infectious Diseases / Virology @univofstandrews • publichealth, TB, HIV • #vegan🌱• #FaceTheClimateEmergency • RT ≠ endorsement

Edinburgh, Scotland
scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo…
Joined August 2009

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 29 Dec 2020

      In a matched-control study, new variant cases were matched to other variants (by age, sex, local authority, specimen date) on a 1:1 (1,769 cases). Majority were living in private house. Interestingly, B.1.1.7 cases were more likely to be part of a residential cluster. 26/

      2 replies 12 retweets 93 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 29 Dec 2020

      In the same study, 42 (out of 3,538) had a record of hospital admission. Out of this, 16 (0.9%) new variant cases were admitted to hospital compared to 26 (1.5%) other cases. So, no significant difference was seen in hospitalisations (p=0.162). (limited # of observations.) 27/

      2 replies 19 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 29 Dec 2020

      In the same study, 28-day case fatality rate analysis was restricted to 2,700 cases. 12 of 1,340 (0.89%) variant cases died within 28 days compared with 10 of 1,360 (0.73%) comparator cases. No significant difference was seen in mortality rates (Odds ratio:1.21, p=0.65). 28/

      4 replies 12 retweets 103 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 29 Dec 2020

      Summary: Based on this preliminary matched-control study, B.1.1.7 does not seem to be associated w/ more hospitalisations or increased 28-d mortality. However, important to note that overall increase in cases in the population could lead to increased hospitalisations. 29/

      2 replies 38 retweets 185 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 29 Dec 2020

      What about the secondary attack rates (SAR) - the likelihood of infection occurring among susceptible contacts? Based on TTI data, higher SAR was observed for B.1.1.7. Attack rate was 15.1% among those whose index case was confirmed to have B.1.1.7 vs. 9.8% for other variants 30/pic.twitter.com/9fXgBQ3k3R

      7 replies 23 retweets 146 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 29 Dec 2020

      Caveats: While this preliminary data is very useful, it is presented descriptively w/o comparative analysis and confidence intervals, and sampling for sequencing is not random. Further analysis is needed as SAR is influenced by epidemic & population dynamics and clustering. 31/

      8 replies 8 retweets 119 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

      B1.1.7 variant report from Imperial (early results of this analysis was already published in Nervtag minutes 18/12 - tweets #9-12 in this thread). This figure shows new variant is rapidly growing in all regions, estimated increase by 0.4 to 0.7. 32/ (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/ …\)pic.twitter.com/z7Ies5erMJ

      2 replies 12 retweets 56 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

      Here is the most misinterpreted result. This analysis is based on S drop out and shows age distribution of cases *only in Nov*. Cases are low in <10, graph (right) shows age share of the variant is higher in <20. Does this mean variant is circulating more in kids? Not really..33/pic.twitter.com/tlIuFAdEtW

      2 replies 63 retweets 172 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

      Ratio age share is higher in <20 yo in Nov because as the authors have noted this is due to this variant circulating during a time where lockdown was in force but schools were open. So, this was a transient effect & does not mean variant is circulating more in kids. 34/

      9 replies 46 retweets 202 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

      And in fact a further analysis by the LSHTM team led by @_nickdavies suggests that over Nov, under 20s were overrepresented in the analysis due to the exact same reason, and as you can see the variant is increasing equally across all age groups. 35/ https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html …pic.twitter.com/jQL60Lmp21

      4 replies 28 retweets 120 likes
      Show this thread
      Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

      In summary, there are currently 3 analyses (PHE, ONS, LSHTM -tweets #23-25 & 35) that show the new variant has the same age-related transmissibility as other variants. Imperial data showed age share of the variant is higher in kids but this is a transient effect of lockdown. 36/

      4:44 AM - 2 Jan 2021
      • 232 Retweets
      • 561 Likes
      • José G Montoya G. MD, FACP, FIDSA Westegnen Fredric Douglas Bellamy Andrew Dr. Jenny Morber giorgia aiello 🍑 gwen 🍑 Golden Valley Action Group Helen Jenkins
      20 replies 232 retweets 561 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

          Muge Cevik Retweeted Muge Cevik

          To clarify: as presented in this thread, evidence suggests that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible overall, which means more transmission across all age groups. But there is no evidence so far to suggest that it favors certain age groups more than others. 37/https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1341094894757171208?s=20 …

          Muge Cevik added,

          Muge CevikVerified account @mugecevik
          In summary: these data suggest that there are lineages with this variant associated with more rapid spread. The concern is that the mutations may be causing this. Although it is possible that this variant may be more transmissible, we don't know how much w/absolute certainty. 14/
          Show this thread
          15 replies 105 retweets 337 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 2 Jan 2021

          Muge Cevik Retweeted Muge Cevik

          We are still learning and need to look at this data as accumulating evidence. There are still many unknowns, but worryingly infections associated w/B.1.1.7 & hospitalisations are rapidly increasing, so we urgently need to limit community transmission. 38/https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1308080103407132673?s=20 …

          Muge Cevik added,

          Muge CevikVerified account @mugecevik
          In summary: The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on households living in poverty, and the racial and ethnic disparities observed in many countries, emphasize the need to urgently update our definition of "vulnerable" populations for COVID-19 & address these inequities. (22/n)
          Show this thread
          11 replies 26 retweets 136 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 8 Jan 2021

          New update about B.1.1.7 Weekly proportion of cases up to Jan 4 with S-drop out (dark purple) is increasing in all regions and all age groups. Mainly concentrated in London and East of England, but 50% of cases are now the variant in Midlands, South West & North. 39/pic.twitter.com/TvxLwIfmIe

          4 replies 38 retweets 77 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 8 Jan 2021

          As of 4 January 2021, a total of 6,008 cases with this variant (VOC/202012-01 or B.1.1.7) have been identified in England, via routine genomic surveillance. Age breakdown of cases demonstrates no particular accumulation in any age group. 40/ https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Zb612Qg797

          1 reply 12 retweets 49 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 8 Jan 2021

          Contact tracing data looking at the secondary attack rates from index cases with the new variant (B.1.1.7) vs other variants based on genomic data shows higher attack rates with B.1.1.7 in all regions except East Midlands (which has small number of people with genomic data). 41/pic.twitter.com/rP7ZmwNf9s

          2 replies 18 retweets 70 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 8 Jan 2021

          Higher secondary attack rates w/ B.1.1.7 are seen across all age groups, but age-related transmissibility looks similar to old variants; i.e. lower SAR in children than adults. So, there is no evidence that this new variant spreads preferentially more efficiently in children. 42/pic.twitter.com/4DUPmKPvo6

          20 replies 165 retweets 447 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 8 Jan 2021

          Similar results are seen based on PCR data with S-drop out. Estimated attack rates are higher in cases with SGTF than cases without SGTF for most regions and age groups, which is proportionate to age related transmissibility. Lower SAR observed in children than adults. 43/pic.twitter.com/rhPgcP9Tfb

          4 replies 26 retweets 72 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Muge Cevik‏Verified account @mugecevik 8 Jan 2021

          Summary: based on contact tracing data, B.1.1.7 is approx 1.5x transmissible, consistent across different regions. Based on multiple analysis, there is now expert consensus that there is no evidence to suggest it spreads particularly more in children 44/(https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf …\)

          23 replies 160 retweets 402 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation
        1. Sara-Jane‏ @brightside1974 2 Jan 2021
          Replying to @mugecevik

          All this still means better safety is needed in schools when open. Right now the appropriate measure is closure until community levels fall. More transmission will mean more children affected severely (even if this is still a rare issue). Is this an accurate understanding?

          5 replies 5 retweets 18 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Owen  🇬🇧  🌸‏ @gerrard1212 2 Jan 2021
          Replying to @mugecevik @FatEmperor

          Just close Imperial please. No point to it.

          1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
        3. Cybersnurgle‏ @cybersnurgle 2 Jan 2021
          Replying to @gerrard1212 @mugecevik @FatEmperor

          Or how about our friends over at PCR claims @pcrclaims launch a civil suit against imperial, Ferguson and Flaxman for damages their epically bad models (citing John Ionnedes) have caused to lives globally?

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info