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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 22 Nov 2016
    • Report Tweet

    A lesson to bear in mind going forward: "outliers" are sometimes correct http://news.usc.edu/110639/usc-dornsifel-a-times-outlier-poll-rings-true-as-donald-trump-wins/ …

    9:37 AM - 22 Nov 2016
    • 14 Retweets
    • 28 Likes
    • Jim 🔥Berner gal Lizzee🔥 Fact Gatherer AJRimmer American Murphy Hyerez Muh Anonymosources "Come At The King Best not Miss " - Omar Little Moustachioed Douche
    8 replies 14 retweets 28 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. David Teich‏ @Davidzteich 22 Nov 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        I think the real lesson is, national popular vote polls shouldn't be given nearly as much attention as they are.

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 22 Nov 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @Davidzteich

        Polls *generally* get way too much attention; suck up way too much energy. Refreshing Nate Silver every 5 seconds is not useful

        4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. David Teich‏ @Davidzteich 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        But of course agree with your broader point. Bloomberg Florida poll, for instance, was an outlier. And right.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 22 Nov 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @Davidzteich

        The poll almost perfectly predicted Trump's percentage of the vote.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. asdfasdf‏ @LongLivePepe 22 Nov 2016
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        "If I Recall Correctly" and I followed PPD and Richard heavily this cycle. Easily the best predictor

        2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      3. Azu$a 🌹光 🇹🇼‏ @PositiveInt 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @LongLivePepe @mtracey @Peoples_Pundit

        I actually made some money off of his polls lol

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. asdfasdf‏ @LongLivePepe 22 Nov 2016
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        IIRC Mike has time and time again discredited PPD as 'bunk' despite their excellent record

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Richard Baris‏ @Peoples_Pundit 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @LongLivePepe @mtracey

        Not sure how anyone who doesn't know anything about us could discredit us. But lesson hopefully learned

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. David Teich‏ @Davidzteich 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Yeah, technically that poll actually missed the popular vote by 5 points. Others closer.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. StefanMKE‏ @StefanMKE 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Didn't the USC/LA Times poll get the pop vote margin wrong by like 5 points? That's among the worst misses in 2016

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. StefanMKE‏ @StefanMKE 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Although remarkably accurate if we don't consider California.

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      1. Brian Hacker‏ @Hacker_Poker 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Mike - that poll is literally the least accurate poll - it's national and off by around 6 percentage points.

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      1. RT‏ @seriouspiff 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        remember when the media made up stories about Trump's real motivation being promoting the launch of "Trump TV" - that was funny

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      1. EK3‏ @EK14MeV 22 Nov 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Yeah, the fringe groups don't have an agenda to protect by sexing up polling reports. Yet Dems hoisted themselves on their petards

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