I think the real lesson is, national popular vote polls shouldn't be given nearly as much attention as they are.
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Polls *generally* get way too much attention; suck up way too much energy. Refreshing Nate Silver every 5 seconds is not useful
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But of course agree with your broader point. Bloomberg Florida poll, for instance, was an outlier. And right.
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The poll almost perfectly predicted Trump's percentage of the vote.
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"If I Recall Correctly" and I followed PPD and Richard heavily this cycle. Easily the best predictor
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I actually made some money off of his polls lol
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IIRC Mike has time and time again discredited PPD as 'bunk' despite their excellent record
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Not sure how anyone who doesn't know anything about us could discredit us. But lesson hopefully learned
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Yeah, technically that poll actually missed the popular vote by 5 points. Others closer.
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Didn't the USC/LA Times poll get the pop vote margin wrong by like 5 points? That's among the worst misses in 2016
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Although remarkably accurate if we don't consider California.
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Mike - that poll is literally the least accurate poll - it's national and off by around 6 percentage points.
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remember when the media made up stories about Trump's real motivation being promoting the launch of "Trump TV" - that was funny
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Yeah, the fringe groups don't have an agenda to protect by sexing up polling reports. Yet Dems hoisted themselves on their petards
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