Errors like this are why I get to ask this question now:https://twitter.com/0xa59a2d/status/796549938750468096 …
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A pet peeve of mine developed during this election is "odds" or "chance" as description of these models' output.
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It masks that there are two probabilities at work--the totally dominant one is the odds of the model being correct, i.e. 0%
End of conversation
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They know so much don't they?
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I cashed my +700 trump ticket and it was glorious. Who put trump in the field last August?
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Weren't there some bookies in Europe that paid out on Hillary winning some months ago?
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I wonder who had big money on Trump
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What new information did we get at 8:41?
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@EdAsante77 how much liquidity?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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predictably unpredictable robust and not valid significant while not accurate
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So it wasn't just pundits/polls but markets that erred/lagged. Implications for markets as decisionmaking tools/
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Fascinating Chart Analysis...The BIG Picture is in the Trend Lines, NOT the Media reported daily Ups/Downs...pic.twitter.com/VJEwBvbDkU
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Sampling error. “Bet” indicators rely upon popular vote matching electoral college.
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That chart also works as a good graphical representation of "the rats are scurrying off of the sinking ship", too.
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