You know when Nate Silver starts to urge panic: panic is upon ushttp://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/?ex_cid=2016-forecast …
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Dem fallacy has always been to assume that Obama's coalition would transfer neatly over to HRC: no reason to believe this. Youth dislike her
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What new demographics does HRC bring into Obama's coalition? Maybe slight additions among older women. Other than that, she atrophies it.
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It's freaking out some of my Asian progressive buds, but Trump's doing just that:http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-0914-lopez-trump-longbeach-20160913-snap-story.html …
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LATimes is useless poll. It has been a consistent outlier.
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if people are really as terrified of Trump as they claim, have to think they'll consider urging her to drop out.
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Pa, Oh, Mi, Wi, Ia all close states. If Trump moves just a few % of these working-class whites, he gains a lot of electoral votes.
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maybe more importantly, Trump has capabilities to shrink HRC's base further, even when fails timespan his own. Hers seems volatile.
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It's not shrinking. People don't respond to pollsters in down cycles. Same reason for convention bumps. More eager to answer phone.
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College educated whites. Dems never have won them.
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