You know when Nate Silver starts to urge panic: panic is upon ushttp://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/?ex_cid=2016-forecast …
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Trump has room to grow: his "base" is locked in, now must court Bush-style GOP types. HRC's "base" is weakening: youth, progressives, blacks
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So: Trump has potential to expand his coalition. Modest inroads among minorities would help, say. HRC's coalition appears to be shrinking.
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Dem fallacy has always been to assume that Obama's coalition would transfer neatly over to HRC: no reason to believe this. Youth dislike her
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What new demographics does HRC bring into Obama's coalition? Maybe slight additions among older women. Other than that, she atrophies it.
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Dems should have been panicking all along. She is easily their weakest candidate in modern history. And I'm no shadow Trump guy.
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They aren't panicking because they can rig elections
@mtracey
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yup I've said this early on. If it's within 2 he'll probably win. Lots of hidden Trump votes out here.
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I think there are two shadow demographics that help him: Shadow Trump voters and shadow 'never Hillary" progressives.
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well he does incorporate commas in his formula
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The issue is, like with Brexit, there could be many people hiding their Trump vote.
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None of the pundits seem willing to entertain the possibility of a hidden Trump vote - a reverse Bradley effect if you will.
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lol this is a joke, right? This isn't how margins of error work.
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MOE is independent to the polling of an individual candidate. If H is 45% with MOE of 2%, then the poll is saying within (43,47)
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inside poll models projecting 70 mil voters trump turn out vs. 50 mil for clinton
#landslidepic.twitter.com/MNJ3StgirZ
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