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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 17 Sep 2016
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      You know when Nate Silver starts to urge panic: panic is upon ushttp://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/?ex_cid=2016-forecast …

      36 replies 218 retweets 262 likes
      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 17 Sep 2016
      • Report Tweet

      My sense: if Trump is within a "margin of error" in the overall polling average (so ~±2) he's likely favored. If HRC is +3-5: she's favored

      8:18 AM - 17 Sep 2016
      • 18 Retweets
      • 41 Likes
      • Solomon Grassroots For Stein 🌺CallMe CiCi🦁 ⏳towhee⏳#Tulsi2020 #Bernie2020 #Unity4J ⏳ Cleopatra Cuomo Watch #BustTheDuopoly Matthew Battle Block🔗 Dow Jones
      12 replies 18 retweets 41 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Trump has room to grow: his "base" is locked in, now must court Bush-style GOP types. HRC's "base" is weakening: youth, progressives, blacks

          19 replies 68 retweets 73 likes
        3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          So: Trump has potential to expand his coalition. Modest inroads among minorities would help, say. HRC's coalition appears to be shrinking.

          9 replies 30 retweets 44 likes
        4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Dem fallacy has always been to assume that Obama's coalition would transfer neatly over to HRC: no reason to believe this. Youth dislike her

          14 replies 98 retweets 186 likes
        5. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          What new demographics does HRC bring into Obama's coalition? Maybe slight additions among older women. Other than that, she atrophies it.

          9 replies 46 retweets 91 likes
        6. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2. Rad Infinitum‏ @BlogAndSundries 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Dems should have been panicking all along. She is easily their weakest candidate in modern history. And I'm no shadow Trump guy.

          2 replies 15 retweets 28 likes
        3. Tammy Kosiancic  🌹‏ @TammyKosiancic 17 Sep 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @BlogAndSundries

          They aren't panicking because they can rig elections @mtracey

          0 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. EdAsante‏ @EdAsante77 17 Sep 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          yup I've said this early on. If it's within 2 he'll probably win. Lots of hidden Trump votes out here.

          1 reply 5 retweets 15 likes
        3. 1 more reply
        1. Rad Infinitum‏ @BlogAndSundries 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I think there are two shadow demographics that help him: Shadow Trump voters and shadow 'never Hillary" progressives.

          0 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        1. Herbie510‏ @Herbie510 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          well he does incorporate commas in his formula

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Laura v2.0‏ @auberginefedora 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          The issue is, like with Brexit, there could be many people hiding their Trump vote.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Robert Crump‏ @robertecrump 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          None of the pundits seem willing to entertain the possibility of a hidden Trump vote - a reverse Bradley effect if you will.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. a big dumb idiot‏ @Surreal_Cynic 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          lol this is a joke, right? This isn't how margins of error work.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. a big dumb idiot‏ @Surreal_Cynic 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @Surreal_Cynic @mtracey

          MOE is independent to the polling of an individual candidate. If H is 45% with MOE of 2%, then the poll is saying within (43,47)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Admiral General‏ @Ahurastan 17 Sep 2016
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          Replying to @mtracey

          inside poll models projecting 70 mil voters trump turn out vs. 50 mil for clinton #landslidepic.twitter.com/MNJ3StgirZ

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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