My sense: if Trump is within a "margin of error" in the overall polling average (so ~±2) he's likely favored. If HRC is +3-5: she's favored
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Trump has room to grow: his "base" is locked in, now must court Bush-style GOP types. HRC's "base" is weakening: youth, progressives, blacks
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So: Trump has potential to expand his coalition. Modest inroads among minorities would help, say. HRC's coalition appears to be shrinking.
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Dem fallacy has always been to assume that Obama's coalition would transfer neatly over to HRC: no reason to believe this. Youth dislike her
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What new demographics does HRC bring into Obama's coalition? Maybe slight additions among older women. Other than that, she atrophies it.
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Yeah, she doesn't add any additional demographics to the Obama coalition. Maybe slightly among older women?
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poor
@NateSilver538 he wants Hillary to win so bad he lost integrity in the spring with his extreme bias. Now look... SMDHThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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"only after falsely accusing Clinton of having started the 'birther' rumors." Guess Nate isn't following you
#sidblumenthalThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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popcorn - check. Bottle of wine - check. Front row seat - check. Panicked Dems -- KARMA.pic.twitter.com/fSAx60dGdF
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And quite a shift in tone from a post
@NateSilver538 made just 7 hours prior to that.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-clear-and-steady/ … -
More like Nate Bronze.
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@mtracey Dems brought this ALL on themselves! I have ZERO sympathy for the#CorruptClintonCartel FUCK EM! Bring on the orange orangutan!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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her current EV lead is based on hypothetical polling. If Demos are not there she has no real EV advantage.
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@FiveThirtyEight *Establishment dems should panic.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This Tweet is unavailable.
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when u add to the "bad weekend"
#DNCLeak,#Guccifer2 and more@wikileaks ...HRC is a colossal fuckstorm ...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@djwoolverton
@NateSilver538 panic? The smarter dems knew if u put Hillary on ballot she might lose. Bernie beat trump by a mileThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@FiveThirtyEight Nate Bronze is probably shitting himself. He's on the Clinton payroll for sure. We'll find his name in wikileaks.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@AJDelgado13@FiveThirtyEight bust out the paddles!!
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