This metric indicates the incumbent party (Dems) is likely to lose. Plausible: generic GOP always favored this yearhttp://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/unlocking-the-election/ …
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Replying to @mtracey
This isn't a series of 'metrics', it's a bunch of arbitrary judgment calls.
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Replying to @mtracey
Not really. He presents it as a model that when back tests has predictive value. It's not. It's just a bunch of arbitrary judgments
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Replying to @matthewstoller @mtracey
Like 'has there been a foreign policy failure?' You can always argue either side of that. It's just not a useful 'metric'
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Replying to @matthewstoller
The whole article is heavily qualified to anticipate just these kinds of objections.
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Replying to @mtracey
They want it both ways. It's a 'parlor game' based on 13 'fundamental analytical keys' which have predictive value.
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Replying to @matthewstoller @mtracey
I basically agree that voters make choices based on fundamentals. I just dislike saying you have a model when you don't.
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"Model" is not the word I'd use to describe it.
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